Can Ketel Marte Repeat his Career Year for the Diamondbacks?

Why Marte may outperform the projection

When Marte was so unfortunately rolled into by Garrett Stubbs on a slide at second base on August 9 of last year, he was already well on his way to a career season. In his first 112 games he batted .297/.367/.555, .922 OPS with 29 homers and 80 RBI. At the same time he was among the league leaders in Defensive Runs Saved at second base.

Related Content: Ketel Marte Continues to Strengthen His NL MVP Case

Marte tried to play through the injury, but ultimately missed the better part of the next four weeks. Still, he ended up with 36 homers and an even higher .932 OPS to end the season, finishing third in the MVP voting.

Fully recovered from his ankle injury after a full offseason of rest, there is no reason he can't pick up right where he left off.

Furthermore, there was absolutely nothing flukey or lucky about Marte's MVP-caliber season. In fact his expected statistics as calculated by Statcast reveal an xwOBA of .392, matching almost exactly his actual wOBA of .391.

This is not the first time Marte has performed at a similar level. In 2019 he finished fourth in the MVP voting with a .329 average, .981 OPS and 32 home runs. In 2023 he followed up an excellent regular season by setting the MLB postseason consecutive hit streak at 20 games. Marte has a combination of dynamic performance to go along with consistency.

Why Marte may underperform the projection

The only thing that has stopped Ketel Marte from being at peak performance over the last five years has been injury. In 2019 his season ended with two weeks left on the schedule due to a stress reaction in his lower back. That injury has popped up from time to time, and in fact his back was bothering him some towards the end of last year as well.

Marte battled through multiple hamstring injuries in 2021 and 2022, with 2022 being an especially down year in which he hit just .240 with a dozen homers and a .727 OPS. In fact it's that 2022 season that is dragging down his projection to an .840 OPS.

As a result of the wear and tear, Marte's sprint speed dropped from 27.7 feet per second in 2023 to 27.1 in 2024. Any further erosion in his running ability could cost him a few base hits and the ability to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. In fact last year's 23 doubles were his lowest total in a full season in his career.

Summary

Ketel Marte is elite. If fully healthy, it's highly likely he will beat his projected .840 OPS and other numbers here quite handily, and contend for the MVP award once again. But the risk of injury holding him back somewhat can't be ignored. A successful season for the Diamondbacks hinges on Marte staying healthy and performing at the same or similar level as we saw in 2024.