No matter how the last few weeks of the 2017 season shake out, the Milwaukee Brewers exceeded even the most optimistic of preseason expectations.
Just a year ago, the team was one of the most rapidly deconstructing teams in the game, looking to sell off any and everything from its high-priced former core. Simply put, the Brewers were a team was past its collective prime. Still possessing remnants of the group that won the franchise’s first division title since 1982 and reached the National League Championship Series in 2011, the eroding roster was unable to keep up with the pace of the neighbors in the NL Central, excluding a Cincinnati squad enduring a similar dilemma. It was time for price slashing and roster reinvention, and the Brewers definitively cashed out of the competitive picture and began stripping their roster.
It was a prolonged rebuilding effort that began more than a year before, one that was still under construction as 2017 rolled in. Accordingly, expectations were not high entering the season. After all, Milwaukee's roster comprised what appeared to be developing talents, veteran placeholders, and pricey layovers who were either contractually immovable or simply undesirable. In whole, nine Brewers participated in their first opening day in the majors, a surefire sign of a team that shouldn't have expected much in the way of October baseball.
But then a startling event occurred: The NL Central hierarchy crumbled around them. The defending World Series champion Cubs began with an uninspiring championship hangover, the Reds predictably fell back to Earth after a torrid early season pace, the Cardinals and Pirates played wildly inconsistent efforts baseball. Suddenly, the division was for anybody’s taking, and by May 17, the Brewers found themselves in a place that even their own clubhouse likely would not have predicted: sole possession of first place in the NL Central. It was a position they would not relinquish for more than two and a half months.
The opportunistic Milwaukee club thrust itself back into the postseason picture and has remained relevant far longer than anyone anticipated. A Cubs revival coming out of the All-Star break forced them from atop the division, but the Brewers have remained in the postseason picture by doing the right things at the right times.
While their chances at an NL Central title have faded some, their odds have greatly improved in the Wild Card picture. As the Colorado Rockies have struggled, the Brewers have seized the opportunity to move closer and closer to their first postseason appearance in seven years.
As a pivotal weekend visit to Wrigley Field awaits, the Brewers find themselves with a puncher’s chance at salvaging a season that, while unexpectedly fruitful, has the chance of slipping from their grip. The offense that was the fourth highest-scoring unit in the National League during the first half of the year has been disastrous in the second half. The team's 177 runs scored is the worst in the league by over 30, as a once dependable and surprisingly fruitful offense has collapsed around itself. After a first half spent looking like a player the Red Sox would regret trading, Travis Shaw has replicated the same lack of consistency that led to him being dealt last winter in the first place. Shaw hit .299 and drove in 65 runs in the first half, but his average has fallen to .235 since the break while driving in only 21 — which sadly still leads the team in the second half.
Likewise, first-half sensation Eric Thames has tanked, only in a far more severe fashion. Since opening the year with a bang, slugging 23 first-half homers in dominant fashion, he has dipped so low that he's nearly become unstartable. In the second half, he has homered only five times in 42 games as his average has plummeted near the Mendoza line.
It has been an ugly effort to endure, and besides the decline of the team’s two first-half powerhouses, the Brewers boast only three players hitting above .280 since the break. Ryan Braun, who missed over a month in the first half with a calf injury, has gotten back up to speed since the break, hitting .289 with a team-best 11 doubles. Joining him in finding his way is Jonathan Villar, the club’s breakout infielder from a year ago. After a woeful first half that saw him hit only .221 and steal 16 bases, Villar is hitting .289 since the break and has stolen another seven bags. Then there is oft-underappreciated Domingo Santana, who has picked up some of the slack that has been lost in Thames's struggles, hitting nine homers since the break.
Add in the production of a pair of former All-Stars who were acquired under the radar, catcher Stephen Vogt and second baseman Neil Walker, who has hit a team-best .292 since joining the club, and the Brewers have scratched out enough runs to stay afloat.
The biggest question is can they marry their bipolar production enough over the last few weeks of the season to realize the opportunity their unlikely rise has afforded them? The pitching staff has been solid enough to keep them in the race while the offense figures itself out. Jimmy Nelson has been one of the NL’s best arms nobody is talking about, while Chase Anderson and Zach Davies have proved themselves to be solid as well.
In the bullpen, Corey Knebel has been one of the best relievers in the game, and he's been at his best in the late rungs of the year, carrying a 0.79 second-half ERA. The rest of the pen, composed of Anthony Swarzak, Jeremy Jeffress, Brandon Woodruff and top prospect-turned-reliever Josh Hader, has taken on the lion’s share of the responsibility in keeping the team afloat,while the offense tries to find its collective way.
It has been a tale of two halves in Milwaukee: one representing the shock, the other highlighting the rough fall back to reality that can often shadow the type of premature surge enjoyed early in the year. Can a team that is so fragmented in both its production and results do what it takes to seize a place in the postseason picture? At their best, the Brewers are certainly capable of being one of the most overwhelming teams in the game, but they have struggled to be that team often enough to stay in control of their destiny.
A fantastic opportunity is at hand for the Brewers, and they have shown they can stay in the fight. But the heart of September will prove whether they were the Rocky Balboa of the season or simply Conor McGregor — a lot of flash but not enough to last.
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