Can The Rangers Really Land a Big-Name Shortstop in Free Agency?

The 2021-22 free agent class is deep. Really deep. With only $28 million on the books in 2022, and only $6 million in 2023, the Texas Rangers are primed to act on their word and flip the switch from "tear-down" mode to "let's starting adding" mode.

The shortstop position will highlight this winter's free agent class. Houston's Carlos Correa, Colorado's Trevor Story, the Los Angeles Dodgers' Corey Seager, the New York Mets' Javier Báez and Toronto's Marcus Semien are all hitting the market. That's a lot of firepower, coming in a variety of skill sets and price ranges. Though, it will take a substantial financial commitment to lure any of them to Arlington.

But is it realistic that the Rangers could land one of these five guys? Or is it just a pipe dream? After all, this team did just lose 102 games.

There are a few boxes that need to be checked to make sure we aren't dreaming up some sort of fantasy. All are necessary and the tall task of landing one of these marquee players can't be done unless all of these scenarios play out.

Box 1: Are the Rangers Willing to Pony Up?

After weeks of leading the fan base on with promises to be "very active" in free agency, Texas Rangers leadership said all the right things in their end-of-season press conference last week. President of baseball operations Jon Daniels, general manager Chris Young and manager Chris Woodward all sat in front of the media last week and doubled down, tripled down and even quadrupled down on said promises.

"We're going to be discussing players in every category, every position, and every area of the market," Daniels said. "There's nobody that we're going to rule out because of a perceived price tag."

Daniels also added: "Ownership is recommitted recently to support us financially, to pay market dollars. We're not in the postseason, obviously. We haven't been now for five years. We don't have that advantage. We're not on TV tonight. We understand this isn't a situation where we're looking for discounts. We're going to have to pay market dollars in order to get top players and we're prepared to do so."

That's as forthright as you're ever going to hear baseball executives be in a formal setting. They're not going to give you numbers. They won't mention names. The longer you do this job, the better you get at translating the language spoken from behind a microphone or in front of a camera.

From everything that has been said, the Rangers are all in on spending the necessary price tag for any player on the market.

Box 1: Check (in stone with your chisel, but hold onto that receipt).

Box 2: Can the Rangers Lure a Big-Time Free Agent After a 102-Loss Season?

This might be a taller task than wondering if the Rangers are willing to drop a ton of cash on one player. After all, it wouldn't be the first time the Rangers had dropped a massive contract on a shortstop. 

In addition, a team landing a marquee free agent after having a losing season is not a farfetched idea either. However, let's not pretend the Rangers had a losing season like 2014 where it was one of those rare times where the injury bug can legitimately be named the culprit for the failure in the win-loss column. The 2021 Rangers were a very young, vastly inexperienced team. At the end of the season, 13 of the 28 players on the active roster qualified as rookies. 20 of the 28 entered the season with less than two years of service time.

"We understand where we are. We're realistic about it," Daniels said. "We're a 60-win club on the field. That's not lost on us. But we do believe we have a lot of positives."

"A lot of positives." 

So what's the Rangers sales pitch?

“There’s a financial component to every free-agency decision, and we have to be competitive in those financial conversations,” said Young. “That’s probably 90 percent of it. But beyond that, there are a lot of great things that are happening underneath the surface. It's tough to say after a 102-loss season. But, as a player, I put on that lens and I fully believe that. I look at our farm system and where we are. I look at the culture and the people that we have here. I look at the market we're in. I look at what an unbelievably great place this is to live, with a fan base that is just craving a winning team. Players who are willing to understand that and look at this and see what the opportunity is, they're going to get excited about that. And the competitors that we want are going to embrace that. I think we're going to find the right ones that fit what we're doing."

Let me translate that language for you...

The Rangers have a farm system that is on the rise. In 2021, both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America propelled the Rangers from the bottom-third of the league in their preseason rankings to No. 11 in their midseason rankings. The Rangers also have the third overall pick in next summer's draft. The farm is about to get deeper with high-end talent, and several existing prospects had standout performances this year.

The Rangers also have several of their top prospects on the verge of hitting the big leagues over the next couple of seasons. Josh Jung and Cole Winn will see the big leagues in 2022, with Jung making a very realistically push to be the Opening Day third baseman. Sam Huff, with his raw power and the bazooka on his shoulder, could get back to Arlington next season as well. 2021 first-round pick Jack Leiter could be a June call-up in 2023, and 2020 first-round pick Justin Foscue will also make a push for the big leagues over the next couple of seasons after a phenomenal performance in his first year in professional baseball.

And, oh yeah. That financial component. I don't think I need to reiterate for you, but I will anyway. Money talks. And with the Rangers willing to pony up, believing that money factors into "90 percent" of the decision, they could lure a top player to Arlington.

Box 2: Check (maybe in pencil instead of pen).

Box 3: O.K., But What About the Other Suitors?

Even if the Rangers are willing to shell out top dollar for whichever player they want, and even if that player is interested, what about the other suitors? Even if the Rangers add $100 million in payroll this winter, they wouldn't even be in the top 10 in baseball. There are other teams that notoriously spend.

Regarding the shortstop market, the Rangers could be in luck, at least with the big spenders. Here's the situation on the top 10 teams in Opening Day payroll this season:

• Los Angeles Dodgers: According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, the Dodgers have privately told Trea Turner that he'll be their starting shortstop next season. If Seager were to return, it would have to be at a different position. If the Rangers offer Seager the right amount of money with the promise of playing shortstop, they could have enough leverage to sway him from the Dodgers.
• New York Yankees: Nightengale also has a note on the Yankees, saying they "privately insist" they won't be a major player in the shortstop market. Instead, Nightengale says the Yankees want Andrelton Simmons on a one- or two-year deal, with the belief that prospect Anthony Volpe will be ready to take over in 2023.
• Boston Red Sox: They have Xander Bogaerts. Next.
• Los Angeles Angels: The first real threat among Major League Baseball's big spenders. Mike Trout still hasn't come close to sniffing a ring, and Shohei Ohtani is not happy about the team's failure to win. In order to keep the peace, the Angels might be tempted to fork out another massive contract to add another player. Though, Nightengale reports the Halos may be looking to unload Anthony Rendon's contract, which has five years and $188 million remaining. The Angels are on the brink of a full-fledged mess.
• Philadelphia Phillies: Another real threat. The Phillies are right on the cusp of becoming a true contender, and one of these shortstops would put them over the top. They could decline their $15 million option on Andrew McCutchen and use it to spend $30 million a year or more on a shortstop and still be under the luxury tax threshold.
• San Diego Padres: They've been spending a lot over the past couple seasons, and Fernando Tatis Jr. moved to the outfield during the season to preserve his health. However, Tatis Jr. has publicly stated he plans to be the shortstop for the Padres next season, saying, "(A.J. Preller) signed a shortstop, and he's gonna have a shortstop. That’s the plan so far, and I'm not planning on moving for a very long time from there."
• Houston Astros: Another threat in the shortstop market. They surely won't let Carlos Correa walk away easily. Though, Correa openly rejected two underwhelming offers from the Astros prior to the season, and Correa has spoken — as recently as late August — as if 2021 will be his final year in Houston: “My last year with the Astros, hopefully we can win another championship ... I can leave this great organization with two of them.” Even so, Houston can afford Correa or another shortstop on the market.
• New York Mets: They have Francisco Lindor. They could try and bring back Javier Báez or attempt to lure Marcus Semien to play second base, but that likely leaves them out of the market for Correa, Seager or Story.
• Washington Nationals: They look like a team heading for a transition year.
• Chicago Cubs: They're a team who is willing to spend, but have unloaded more players than they've added over the past year. In addition, they haven't quite ponied up to compete with a robust market. Just ask Kris Bryant.

However, there are still a few clubs who weren't top spenders in 2021 that can afford to make a splash this winter: 

• Detroit Tigers: They could contend as early as next season, and are expected to be major players in free agency. As a matter of fact, it would be a bit of a shock if they didn't land one of the big five shortstops.
• Seattle Mariners: This team defied the odds in a number of ways this season, but they have an exciting young core. They just need a piece or two to put them over the top. They do have J.P. Crawford at shortstop, and he's one of the premier defenders at the position in all of baseball. However, they could still compete for one of the big five and figure out the logistics later.
• San Francisco Giants: Though Brandon Crawford still looks like a man who could hold down shortstop for another five years, the Giants could look to upgrade at second or third base. They could look at the shortstop market to address those needs. They also have the financial flexibility to do so.
• Miami Marlins: The Marlins may have only won 67 games in 2021, but don't count them out. They have a nice young core of players, one of the top farm systems in all of baseball and the most financial flexibility for external additions. Miami only has $8.5 million on the books before they settle with their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. Even after that, they'll still be under $50 million in total payroll.

Box 3: TBD.

Final Thoughts

It's a robust market for the big five shortstops. If the Rangers landed one of them, chalk up this winter with the biggest 'W' you can. It won't be easy. Being willing to shell out money is one thing. Being a great salesman is another, especially since baseball is full of good salesman.

As we saw with Jack Leiter this summer, maybe Chris Young is the catalyst. Maybe he can spin things from the players' perspective that makes the Rangers' situation more enticing than any other. And, like I've already mentioned, money talks.

It's far from a foregone conclusion that the Rangers land one of the big fish. But they have fortified rods, reinforced line and a couple of fisherman with varying experience and skills. Whether or not they can get one to bite, that remains to be seen.

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