Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction: MLB odds, picks for 'Sunday Night Baseball'

Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds

Sunday, May 26, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

St. Louis Cardinals

Though he missed the first couple weeks of the season, the Sonny Gray signing is already looking like a genius move for the Cards.

It may be just about the only genius thing the Cardinals have done to this roster in a while, but the 34-year-old, who signed for $75 million over three years with a club option, has not only replicated the good seasons he had in Minnesota but improved upon them.

Gray's strikeout rate has skyrocketed back to the heights we saw in his prime, going from 24% the last two seasons to 31% this year. While he's traded in some ground balls for strikeouts, his rates are right around the league average and his Expected Batting Average stands at a cool .228. There's little reason to believe Gray can't pitch to contact, and with all the strikeouts coming along with few walks, he's been incredibly easy to trust.

Speaking of trustworthy, what's gotten into the Cardinals' offense? They own a 136 wRC+ over the last two weeks, cutting back on strikeouts and posting a very respectable .159 Isolated Power.

Lars Nootbaar has heated up and joined Alec Burleson as the anchors of this offense, while it appears Paul Goldschmidt is coming out of his year-long slumber. It's hard to find too many issues with the lineup, which runs counter to what we've said all year.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have gone backward, scoring just 34 runs over the last 14 days to rank among the worst offenses in baseball. Their strikeout rate has gotten a bit worse, but it's really the .095 ISO that's to blame here.

The Cubs have had to play in arduous hitting conditions over the last week, whether it be at windy Wrigley Field or spacious Busch Stadium. Whatever the case, the ball is just not leaving the yard for this team at the moment.

The bullpen has been the biggest topic of discussion. While the Cubs should have a reasonable chance to fix this by dipping into their deep farm system to make a few trades, as it stands right now, things are bleak.

The good news for Sunday is that Neris hasn't pitched in four days, and Wesneski has rested the last two. On top of that, Smyly emerged as one of their top setup men earlier in the year and was just activated off the IL a couple of days ago and should make his return on Sunday night. Tyson Miller, the first of many bullpen acquisitions, also threw just three pitches on Saturday and should be ready to help.

That should be very important with Javier Assad on the hill. Yes, he's been fantastic with a 1.70 ERA, but he's rarely worked deep into games and should have to throw a lot of pitches to a suddenly patient Cardinals offense. His xBA stands at a cool .226 on account of a very palatable 44.7% ground-ball rate, but an influx of walks has driven up his xERA to 3.33.

Cardinals vs. Cubs

Betting Pick & Prediction

I think the Cubs offense will rise again, but it may not happen on Sunday with the way Gray has pitched. Chicago's been awfully vulnerable to the strikeout of late and should be in trouble against Gray, who has missed bats and displayed excellent control.

Parks that punish fly balls have been the undoing of the Cubs. On Saturday, they smoked several balls to the warning track as they attempted to come back in the late innings — those would have left the yard in a plethora of other parks.

I don't see things improving all that much here for Chicago offensively, but I do think Assad gives them a positive outlook in the pitching department. With Smyly rearing to go and some of its better arms rested, I think it can figure out a way to keep St. Louis at bay offensively and deliver a low-scoring game.

Bet: Under 8.5 (-124) Bet the Under With FanDuel QuickSlip!