As it stands right now, the door may very well be all but closed on the Kansas City Royals‘ postseason chances in 2025. Their dream of back-to-back October appearances seems all but dead in the water due to a six-game American League Wild Card deficit.
This means that even with two weeks remaining in the regular season schedule, the Royals faithful can start to shift their focus to looking back at the season that was.
While a terribly inefficient offense and injuries to key stars on the mound, like Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, might be some of the biggest storylines, the success of the bullpen overall could very well be just as big a takeaway.
This season, the Royals’ relievers sit sixth in MLB in ERA and 11th in WHIP. And a huge reason as to why the bullpen has looked so efficient has been due to the fact that the Royals have been graced with the stabilizing force of their new closer, Carlos Estévez.
Stats updated prior to games on September 15.
Despite his 2.45 ERA season last year, there was still some debate as to who the closer should be after the Royals signed the 32-year-old Estévez at the end of January. After all, they were only a few months removed from trading for the rising talent Lucas Erceg at the trade deadline just months prior.
However, the more extensive closing experience of Estévez prevailed, and the Royals have looked wise for making the decision to have him occupy the ninth.
Flashback to the beginning of last season, before Estévez, or Erceg for that matter, was even a thought for Kansas City.
The Royals broke camp with the likes of James McArthur as their primary anchoring arm in the bullpen.
While the 28-year-old was something of a master at keeping the ball on the ground (91st percentile groundball rate of 53.6%) and limiting the free passes (90th percentile of 5.3%), his poor overall stat line spoke for itself.
In 56.2 innings across 57 appearances out of the Royals ‘pen in 2024, McArthur would convert a respectable 18 saves. However, he more importantly sported a bloated 4.92 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .296 BAA. It was clear why the Royals felt the need to shop for a closer at the 2024 trade deadline.
But even Erceg came with his flaws, as after playing Mason Miller’s understudy in Oakland, there were some apparent growing pains, even if his overall body of work looked strong.
Erceg threw to a 2.88 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .194 BAA against after arriving at Kauffman Stadium. That being said, despite his success, one of the periods Royals fans will remember the most of his 2024 season was that horrendous three-game spell from Aug. 28 to Sept. 3. Things looked pretty bleak, and the thought of buyer’s remorse started to become more prevalent than ever.
In two innings of work across three outings in that span, Erceg was tagged for seven earned runs on seven hits and a walk. And what doesn’t show up on the stat sheet – but has been ingrained in the minds of Royals fans – was the panicked throw he made to first on Aug. 29, pulling Vinnie Pasquantino off the bag and subsequently breaking the first baseman’s thumb and sending him to the IL in the midst of a postseason run.
Relievers have their rough spells. However, when tasked with anchoring a bullpen in the closer’s role, cold spells are magnified tenfold.
Whether or not it was a closer or just another back-end arm capable of occupying high-leverage innings alongside Erceg, the Royals were always going to need to bring another noteworthy reliever through the door last winter.
But perhaps that rough patch from Erceg, when the stakes were at their highest, was enough for J.J. Picollo and the Royals’ brass to really settle on a closer as this team’s relief pitching priority.
And while Estévez isn’t without his flaws by any means, he’s never had a string of poor results since arriving that has never given Kansas City a reason to question his presence in the ninth inning.
Estévez isn’t a perfect arm by any means, but what reliever is? At the end of the day, his numbers speak for themselves. His chaotic approach may raise Royals fans’ blood pressure at times, but he almost always seems to get the job done.
With just a 34th percentile K-rate of 20.3% and a 38th percentile walk rate of 8.6%, baserunners have become almost a formality at certain points this season for the veteran when he takes the mound to close things out.
However, again, the stat line speaks for itself, as Estévez has become one of the game’s best escape artists.
In 62.1 innings across 63 appearances, Estévez has pitched to a 2.45 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .192 BAA, converting an MLB-best 39 saves in the process.
And since the All-Star break, his escape artist ways haven’t been required nearly as much, as he’s looked far more like the traditional dominant closer that limits baserunners and converts save opportunities in the cleanest way possible.
Half | ERA | WHIP | Opp AVG | Opp OBP | Opp SLG | K% | BB% |
1st Half | 2.36 | 1.10 | .201 | .283 | .318 | 20.1% | 8.6% |
2nd Half | 2.57 | 0.95 | .173 | .244 | .307 | 20.7% | 8.5% |
Again, he doesn’t leave batters dumbfounded with blistering stuff, but he’s found a way to close out games that works for him. And as long as the saves keep coming, the Royals likely won’t care how he’s going about getting them.
With Kansas City also seeing the likes of several trusted arms hit the IL at some point his season, like Erceg, Hunter Harvey, Steven Cruz and Daniel Lynch IV, one thing has remained constant, and that is Estévez’s stabilizing presence in the back.
Unlike during this past spring training, there’s suddenly no question who the Royals will throw out in the ninth anymore, as at long last, the heir apparent to Wade Davis’ closing throne seems to have arrived in Kansas City.
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