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Chances of Giants' Justin Verlander Reaching 300 Victories Dwindling by the Day

Originally posted on San Francisco Giants on SI
By Kenneth Teape | Last updated Aug 12, 2025 12:00 PM ET

One of the needs of the San Francisco Giants entering the first offseason with Buster Posey at the helm as president of baseball operations was their starting rotation.

A massive void was created atop the rotation when ace, Blake Snell, opted out of his contract and signed a five-year, $182 million deal with their National League West rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Giants were reportedly in the running for Corbin Burnes to replace him, but he ended up signing a deal with their other divisional rivals, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not to be deterred, Posey took a shot on a veteran: Justin Verlander.

San Francisco and the veteran righty agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal. It was a major risk with him set to be 42 years old once Opening Day rolled around, especially with him coming off the least productive season of his career in 2024.

But, there were signs of him still being able to produce at a serviceable level if he were to remain healthy. Prior to injuries last year, he remained a reliable source of production for the Houston Astros.

Justin Verlander has underwhelmed with Giants

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Alas, that has not been the case in 2025. Verlander spent some time on the injured list again and when he has taken the mound, the production has been well below replacement level and the outlook isn’t improving.

In his most recent start, the future Hall of Famer was shelled by the Washington Nationals, who aren’t known for their offensive exploits. He surrendered five runs through five innings on 11 hits and one walk with six strikeouts.

Coming off the best three-start stretch of the campaign, it was certainly a demoralizing dud against the Nationals, with his odds of reaching the 300-win plateau that seemed attainable just a few years ago diminishing daily.

“After winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2022 and putting together another good season in 2023, Verlander had an outside chance at reaching 300 wins. But he’s collected just six victories in the past two years, and might not tally more than his current total of 263,” wrote Andy McCullough of The Athletic (subscription required).

Through 20 starts this year, Verlander is 1-9 with a 4.53 ERA and 4.16 FIP. He has thrown 99.1 innings, registering 87 strikeouts along the way. His production has improved in some areas compared to 2024, but his bWAR remains identical at -0.3.

Below replacement level for two straight campaigns, it is hard to imagine his market being very robust for 2026, despite his desire to continue his career.