Checking in on Diamondbacks Playoff Odds Raises Concerns

Note: If the number is negative, that shows how much you need to bet to win $100. If the number is positive, that shows how much you win if you bet $100.

Team popularity and the amount of bets placed on a given team can heavily influence betting odds. That's why it's usually a good idea to compare these to various baseball analytics websites that also provide percentage playoff odds.

For example, Fangraphs' playoff odds report shows the Diamondbacks with the eighth-best odds at 46.3%. They entered the season with fifth-highest odds at 60.3%.

Baseball Prospectus is still somewhat bullish on the D-backs' chances, showing a 57.6% chance to make the Postseason. That is the sixth-best odds, and places the D-backs as the third NL Wild Card team.

The above two websites take a teams year to date record and add their rest of season projections to that record to come up with their playoff reports.

Baseball Reference also creates a playoff odds report, but their method is different. They take the last 100 games played by a team (even if spanning two seasons) and use run differential and strength of schedule to produce a rest-of-season odds report. That report gives the D-backs a 46.1% chance, and is the sixth-best in the league.

One important area that is not taken into account in any of these reports are the Wild Card tie-breakers. As most Diamondbacks fans know, it was the tie-breaker that kept them out of the Postseason last year despite finishing with the same record (89-73) as the Mets and Braves. That is because they lost the head-to-head season series to both teams.

The D-backs finished the 2023 season with the same 84-78 record as the Miami Marlins, but the Marlins were the highest seed due to winning head-to-head series with Arizona 4-2. The Cubs were one game behind with a 83-79 record. Chicago would have had to win one more game than Arizona to keep them out however, as the D-backs held the season series advantage over Chicago with a 6-1 head-to-head record.

All of this is to say, those head-to-head matchups really matter. They already lost the season series to the Cubs, 3-4. They failed to take the season series from the Mets, dropping the series finale on Wednesday to fall to 3-3 against New York. They are currently 1-2 against the Braves and Phillies also.

If a season series is tied between two teams, the next tie-breaker is intradivisional record. Oddly, Arizona has not yet played any games within their division. That changes Thursday as they play the first of four against the Dodgers.

The timing for this article was not picked by accident. Clearly the D-backs have hurt their chances to make the Postseason with their poor play over the previous 19 days, though the season is far from over, and there is plenty of time to right their ship.

But they are playing the best team in MLB the next four games, and all of these reports could look very different next Monday morning. Then they head out on the road to play the Giants at Oracle Park. After a brief respite, hopefully, against the MLB-worst Rockies at home, then they head right back out on the road to face the Dodgers for three May 19-21.

Arizona cannot clinch a playoff spot in the next two weeks, but they will have to improve their play drastically if they want to avoid putting themselves in a very deep hole.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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