Chicago Cubs Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Chicago Cubs Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 40

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 14

OPTIONS: Holmes (Player, $12.0M), Rea (Club, $7.5M), Webb (Club, $2.5M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 4; Jaxon Wiggins, Will Sanders, Brandon Birdsell, Brody McCullough

JUSTIN STEELE (5.143): $6,775,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Steele missed the entire platform season. Walker Buehler (2023, $0 raise) and Lance McCullers (2019, $0 raise) provide the missed-season precedent. I project a $0 raise, keeping Steele at $6.775M.

Tender Prediction: Steele will be tendered a contract. He was throwing bullpens as the season finished up and appears to be healthy, which should make this an easy tender decision. Tender.

EDWARD CABRERA (4.147): $5,300,000 ($850k raise)

The Case: Cabrera missed nearly 100 days on the IL and finished the season with 80 IP across 18 games and 15 starts with a 5.96 ERA.

Cal Quantrill (2023, $1.05M raise) is the historical comparison that gives the best idea of where this group should fall after pitching 99.2 IP across 19 starts with a 5.24 ERA while also spending significant time on the IL.

The current class also helps place Cabrera. Nick Lodolo (2026, $1.075M proj. raise) is projected above Cabrera after 108.2 IP across 21 starts with a 4.97 ERA, while Dean Kremer (2026, $1.0M proj. raise) is also projected above him after 90.1 IP across 17 starts with a 4.68 ERA. Cabrera falls below both in innings and ERA, and I project an $850k raise, bringing his total salary to $5.3M.

Tender Prediction: Cabrera will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BRAXTON GARRETT (4.005): $1,550,000 ($20k raise)

The Case: Garrett threw only 4.1 poor Major League innings and otherwise spent the season on optional assignment. Because he was healthy and did appear in the Majors, I project a small $20K raise consistent with typical league-minimum increase, bringing him to $1.55M.

Tender Prediction: Garrett will be retained. The Cubs acquired him at the deadline, so I fully expect him to be with Chicago in 2027, and the club will likely try to get a pre-tender deal done. Regardless of the exact contract structure, he should be a Cub in 2027. Pre-Tender.

JAVIER ASSAD (3.166): $3,400,000 ($1.6M raise)

The Case: Assad was used in the PY as a hybrid SP/RP, throwing a total of 94.1 IP in 28 games (11 starts) to the tune of a 3.63 ERA. He also trended well in the second half, tossing a 2.73 ERA after the All-Star Break.

Michael King (2023, $1.85M raise) is the closest comparison in terms of role, with King pitching in 49 games but making only 9 starts. King tallied a similar 104.2 IP to a 2.75 ERA.

Assad falls below King due to King’s superior quality but stays nearby due to the similar role and bulk. I project Assad to recieve a $1.6M raise, resulting in a salary of $3.4M.

Tender Prediction: The Cubs will likely exercise Assad’s $3.3M club option. Club Option Accepted.

MIGUEL AMAYA (3.130): $1,150,000

The Case: Amaya enters arbitration with 876 career PA’s and a near league-average 96 wRC+ with 23 career HR’s, used as a backup catcher throughout his career.

Joey Bart (2024, $1.175M salary) is a good lookback comp entering with 785 career PA’s, 24 HR’s and a 93 wRC+.

Current class comp Pedro Pages (2026, $1M proj. salary) enters with similar career bulk at 818 PA’s and 22 HR’s but a weaker 75 wRC+.

Amaya gets ahead of Pages for this quality advantage in both career and PY where Amaya posted a 106 wRC+ to Pages’ 65. Bart stays ahead of Amaya due to his 120 wRC+ PY across 282 PA’s, more than Amaya’s 254, but Amaya stays close to Bart due to his slight career advantages in bulk and wRC+. Amaya slots in at $1.15M.

Tender Prediction: Amaya will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

GABRIEL ARIAS (3.124): $1,250,000

The Case: Arias enters arbitration off the back of a tumultuous season in which he played for three different teams after being DFA’d twice. He enters arbitration with 1,183 career PA, 30 HR and a 76 wRC+.

Emmanuel Rivera (2024, $1.0M salary) is a pre-tender comparison with a similar transaction history that included multiple DFAs, entering with slightly less career bulk at 1,042 PA and 22 HR but better quality with an 87 wRC+. Because Rivera’s deal was pre-tender, it may not carry much weight in a hearing, but either way it provides the floor for Arias’ case.

Ezequiel Duran (2025, $1.375M salary) is the closest recent statistical comparison among players who were actually tendered after entering arbitration with 1,163 career PA, 22 HR and an 87 wRC+. Arias needs to stay comfortably behind Duran because of the multiple DFA transactions and significantly worse career quality. I project Arias at a $1.25M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Arias is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate. The Cubs already have plenty of strong defensive infield options, and Arias has no options remaining, making the roster fit especially difficult. Non-Tender.

RYAN ROLISON (3.109): $950,000

The Case: Rolison had a really strong platform season, going 9-2 with a 3.14 ERA across 63 IP and 60 appearances with 7 HLD and 3 SV, but he enters arbitration with only 105.1 career IP across two major league seasons. That lack of career bulk is what keeps this case down despite the platform-year quality.

Justin Anderson (2024, $900k salary) threw 53.1 IP with 5 HLD, 1 SV and a 4.39 ERA in his platform season, while Zach Pop (2024, $900k salary) threw 48.1 IP with 10 HLD, 1 SV and a 5.59 ERA. Rolison clearly has the quality advantage over both, but both entered arbitration with significantly more career innings. Rolison should get above this $900k group because his platform season is better almost across the board, but there really is not precedent for a pitcher with this little career bulk and this level of leverage production jumping much above $1M.

Grant Anderson (2026, $1M proj. salary) is therefore a useful current-class ceiling rather than the reason for the projection. I project a $950K total salary.

Tender Prediction: Rolison will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ETHAN ROBERTS (3.082): $800,000

The Case: Roberts only threw 25.2 IP with no holds or saves and enters arbitration with just 69 career IP, a 4.70 ERA and significant time spent off the active roster. There is not enough bulk or leverage production to separate him from the bottom of the market near league-minimum. I project an $800k total salary.

Tender Prediction: With no options remaining, Roberts is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate. Non-Tender.

MICHAEL BUSCH (3.045): $4,150,000

The Case: Busch enters arbitration as a 3x qualifier with great power, hitting 20+ HR in all three of his qualifying seasons. Over the course of his career, he has amassed 77 HR in 1,950 PA to a 120 wRC+.

Spencer Torkelson (2025, $4.075M salary) should act as the floor with similar career bulk and power despite qualifying only twice due to an option in his PY-1. Torkelson entered arbitration with 2,118 career PA, 80 HR and a 101 wRC+. Busch’s bulk disadvantage is outweighed by his significantly better career quality and stronger consistency.

Ryan Mountcastle (2023, $4.1375M salary) is the other power bat in this range, but like Torkelson qualified only twice and did not qualify in his platform year. When extrapolating his 2020 season, Mountcastle’s career totals come out to 87 HR over 2,043 PA, and unlike Torkelson his career quality is comparable to Busch at a 116 wRC+.

Ultimately, Busch has the better career consistency and quality than this group and should sneak past both despite the slight bulk disadvantages. I project a $4.15M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Busch will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BEN BROWN (2.169): $1,700,000

The Case: Brown had an incredible platform season, throwing 68 IP across 20 appearances and 8 starts with a 4-2 record and 1.85 ERA before ending the season on the IL. He enters his first arbitration trip with 229.2 career IP across 60 appearances and 31 starts with a 4.15 ERA.

Michael King (2022, $1.3M salary) provides a strong floor after entering arbitration with 143 career IP and 10 starts before throwing 51 IP entirely out of the bullpen with a 2.29 ERA and ending the season on the IL. Brown holds clear advantages in career IP, career starts, platform-year innings and quality, putting him comfortably above King.

The key issue for Brown is the historical market for first-time eligible pitchers that end their platform season on the IL. The top of that group sits around $1.825M, with the strongest case coming from a full-time starting pitcher. Brown’s 1.85 ERA gives his representatives a legitimate argument toward the top of the group, but only 8 of his 20 platform-year appearances came as starts and the injury prevented him from adding any more bulk.

The combination of elite quality and career starting experience gets Brown well above King, but the season-ending injury creates enough separation from the top of the injured starter market. I project a $1.7M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Brown will be tendered a contract barring any major medical red flags, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

DANIEL PALENCIA (2.154): $1,550,000

The Case: Palencia enters his first arbitration trip with 26 career saves despite only throwing 125.1 career IP, but his case is hurt by extensive time spent on option and the IL throughout his career. Palencia only made 32 appearances in his platform season, throwing 29.2 IP with 3 SV and a 3.64 ERA.

Héctor Neris (2018, $1.8M salary) provides the historical ceiling after entering arbitration with 39 career saves and 36 holds while also spending time on option in PY and losing closer job. Palencia is relatively close in saves, but Neris holds a significant advantage in total leverage production.

Ryan Walker (2026, $1.6M proj. salary) is the best current-class comparison of a player also losing their closer job in the PY. Walker enters arbitration with 31 SV and 37 HLD across 235.1 career IP with a 3.56 ERA. Palencia only trails Walker by 5 career saves, but Walker more than doubles him in career bulk and holds while Palencia has spent significantly more time on option and the IL.

Palencia’s career save total keeps him close to Walker, but there is enough separation in bulk and total leverage production to keep him slightly below. I project a $1.55M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Palencia will be tendered a contract. His case will have a lot of moving parts with Ryan Walker’s case, and the two markets will likely be tied together depending on the timing and order of settlements. Tender.