Chicago Cubs face sobering trade deadline realities, per analyst

According to the piece by J.J. Cooper, recent history shows just how rare it is for top prospects to be a part of major trade deadline deals.

In 2024, for example, no top-100 prospects were traded in deadline deals. In 2023, only 3 top-100 prospects were dealt– none higher than no. 72. Since 2018, just 21 top-100 prospects have been moved at the deadline, with only 10 of those being in the top-50.

The data underscores a trend with front offices preferring to deal in lower-level prospects while holding on to higher-level prospects as low-cost major league roster assets.

This is both good and bad when it comes to the Cubs.

The Cubs are, indeed, loaded at the Triple-A level, blessed with a feasible replacement for nearly every major league position.

On the down side, though, they are not as stacked with talent at the lower levels of the farm system.

If everything plays out true to recent form at this deadline, teams will be asking the Cubs for younger, higher-ceiling prospects that won’t be in supply unless the front office wants to hobble the bottom half of their farm system.

The alternative would see the Cubs dealing some of their near-MLB-ready top talent such as no. 1 prospect Owen Caissie, who they’d most definitely like to keep as insurance for the possible free agent departure of Kyle Tucker.

An underwhelming deadline?

The feeling among many is that the Cubs’ trade deadline haul might be a bit underwhelming when stacked up against fans’ lofty expectations.

Michael Canter of Cubs Insider is one of those talking about the need to reel in deadline expectations a bit.

Per Canter:

“[Jed] Hoyer’s reluctance to trade his top prospects may leave some fans disappointed once the calendar turns to August. Be glad that he’s unwilling to overpay for rentals or, even worse, mediocrity. Caissie, Alcantara, Moisés Ballesteros, and Jefferson Rojas should remain with the Cubs unless Hoyer can find young, cost-controlled pitching, and ultimately, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Orioles fans may feel shortchanged when prospect hauls fall short of any perceived expectations. Those Godfather deals rarely materialize when trading players with eight weeks of remaining club control.”

Needs vs. expectations

That may be a bitter pill to swallow for fans seeing the team’s weaknesses on paper play out on the field.

On Monday, the liabilities at the back of the Cubs rotation came to the forefront as the recently recalled Ben Brown (his “start” came in the second inning, after a Ryan Brasier first inning) was battered by the Kansas City Royals, allowing six earned runs over 4 innings pitched in a 12-to-4 bashing.

Sunday, in the team’s 6-to-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox, the bullpen faltered with Ryan Pressly giving up 2 earned runs in one inning and Drew Pomeranz allowing 3 earned runs in just one-third of an inning.

The sobering failures line up with the Cubs’ shopping list headed into the trade deadline. The need for at least one more solid starter tops that wish list, but an established quality reliever should also be there as well.

And, maybe, those needs don’t get addressed without drastically overpaying and mortgaging the team’s future.

As usually seems to be the case in Cubs’ transactions, creativity, guile, and a hefty helping of good luck might have to go along with any deadline deals made.