Cincinnati Reds Have to Carefully Manage Chase Burns

The Cincinnati Reds are on a roll and now they have the Los Angeles Dodgers to face. On the mound for the Redlegs is Chase Burns whose workload is of top concern.

Burns is in his first professional season. After he was drafted No. 2 overall last year, the Reds shut Burns down. Just about every MLB team has a plan they put in place for pitchers in their first professional season and that plan includes an innings cap.

While this number isn’t public knowledge, we can glean some things from how the Reds have managed their recent top pitching prospects.

In Andrew Abbott’s first full season of professional baseball, the Reds limited him to 118 innings. If you want to squint and add the little bit he pitched after he was drafted in 2021, then it totaled 131 innings.

Nick Lodolo was an interesting case as he pitched for a half minute after he was drafted in 2019, worked at Prasco in 2020, and then pitched around blister problems in 2021. Including a few starts before his call-up in 2022, he had just 81 2/3 innings pitched in the minors across three years. He then pitched 103 1/3 innings at the major league level in 2022.

Hunter Greene broke into the majors in 2022, as well, and pitched the most innings in that one year of the Reds big three. He had 125 2/3 innings at the MLB level after making three starts and pitching seven innings in Louisville before being called up. He had a few more innings in the minors than the other two because he was drafted out of high school, but not a ton as he dealt with injuries shortening his minor league seasons.

This looks to be pointing in one direction. Burns will have an innings limit between 120 and 130 innings this year. He currently sits at 87 2/3 innings. 

If the Reds manage him to average five innings a start, the rest of the way, that means he may generously have eight starts left in him before it will be time to shut him down.

This is a method the entire league uses. After seeing different pitchers in recent memory break down shortly into their careers because of being overused in their first couple of seasons, teams protect their investment a lot more. 

This is the prudent way to handle Burns. What that means for the rest of the rotation will be up to Nick Krall.