Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers prediction, pick, odds for Fri. 8/16

Guardians vs. Brewers Odds

Friday, Aug. 16

8:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Guardians vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers

Guardians vs. Brewers Preview

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Must Win?

Last week, the Guardians were in the midst of a seven-game slide and in danger of falling out of first place in the AL Central.

However, Cleveland rebounded with two wins over Minnesota to create some breathing room from the Twins and followed that up with a three-game sweep of the Cubs.

After overcoming an early 3-0 deficit in the opener to beat Chicago, 9-8, the Guardians limited the Cubs to two runs in the final two victories to improve to 72-49. They currently own the best record in the American League.

With the Yankees on deck in the Bronx on Tuesday, the Guardians can't afford to mess around here as they send out Gavin Williams in the opener tonight.

Williams has been terrific on the road this season, posting a minuscule ERA of 0.84 in four starts, while limiting the Twins to four hits and one run in six innings of a 2-1 victory his last time out on August 10.

For comparison sake, Williams has yielded three runs or more in all four home starts, all Cleveland losses. The Guardians have won three of his four away outings, with the lone loss coming in a 1-0 setback at Detroit.

Cleveland is riding an incredible 9-1 under run in its last 10 road series openers and has scored three runs or less in eight of those contests.

The Guardians have split 14 road games against National League foes this season, with the only series victory against a club with a winning record coming in Philadelphia over the Phillies last month.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: No Yelich, No Problem?

The Brewers have built enough of an advantage atop the National League Central to cruise the rest of the way, as Milwaukee owns a comfortable nine-game edge over both Cincinnati and St. Louis.

However, the Brew Crew will be without former MVP Christian Yelich the rest of the season. Yelich opted for back surgery, and the outfielder hasn't played since July 23.

Yelich was batting .315 (his highest average since 2019), but the Brewers are still in the mix for the NL's best record, sitting two games back of the Phillies.

Milwaukee helped itself the last two days by defeating Los Angeles at home to pick up a crucial four-game split with the Dodgers. The Brewers rallied from a 3-0 deficit in Wednesday's 5-4 victory, followed by another late comeback on Thursday by scoring three runs in the eighth inning of a 6-4 triumph.

Aaron Civale spent his first five seasons in Cleveland before getting dealt to Tampa Bay last season. Civale finished off 2023 with the Rays and began this season in Tampa Bay before another move to Milwaukee in late June.

The Rays won three of Civale's first four starts this season, but victories have been scarce with the right-hander on the mound as Tampa Bay went 2-11 in his final 13 outings before the trade to Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 2-4 in Civale's six starts, although Milwaukee won in his last trip to the mound, an 8-3 home blowout of Cincinnati last Friday.

Civale delivered 6.1 innings of five-hit ball, marking his third start with the Brewers in which he allowed two runs or fewer.

Guardians vs. Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis

Williams' road numbers have been outstanding this season, but Civale should be motivated here in his first start against the team that traded him.

The Guardians are rolling again, but now they're hitting the road following the series against the Cubs to face a Brewers team that's shooting for the top record in the National League.

Pick: Brewers -105 (Play to -110)

Moneyline

Although Yelich has been sidelined for nearly a month before the announcement of his season ending, the Brewers want to show they can win without him, which they proved in the last two games against the Dodgers.

Also, Milwaukee has dominated AL opponents at home this season with a 13-5 mark.

Run Line (Spread)

Eight of the past 10 losses by Milwaukee have come by two runs or more, while nine of the last 10 wins by the Brewers are by two runs or more. Three of Cleveland's last five wins have covered the run line, while nine of the previous 10 losses are by at least two runs.

Lean to Milwaukee on the run line with a nice return.

Over/Under

The over has cashed in five of six starts when Civale takes the hill since his trade to Milwaukee, while going 7-2 in his past nine starts overall.

The Brewers are 5-1 to the over in their past six series openers, but with Cleveland's low-scoring trend in road series openers, we'll pass on the total.