Contact! Saturday's Base Hit Builder

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. 

We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last two weeks or so (min 25 PAs).

OH BABY WE ARE ON FIRE! BOTH THE (+128) AND (+146) PARLAYS HIT, ALL FIVE HITTERS GOT THERE 

Today's Contact SP Targets: (+90% Zone-Contact & +46% Hard Hit Rates)

• COL Antonio Senzatela — 72.1 IP; 93.2% Zone-Contact, 47.9% Hard Hit vs. MIL
• ARI Brandon Pfaadt — 80.1 IP; 89.8% Zone-Contact, 49.4% Hard Hit vs. MIA
• BOS Lucas Giolito — 51.2 IP; 89.8% Zone-Contact, 47.4% Hard Hit vs. TOR
• KC Seth Lugo — 83.0 IP; 89.8% Zone-Contact, 45.7% Hard Hit vs. LAD

All Opposing Hitters w/+80% Contact, +42% Hard Hit, & +.260 Expected Batting Average, Last ~Two Weeks vs. LHP/RHP

• MIL Isaac Collins vs. RHP — 29 PA; +80% Contact, +45% Hard Hit & +.274 Expected Batting Average
• MIL William Contreras vs RHP — 28 PA; +80% Contact, +46% Hard Hit & +.290 Expected Batting Average
• MIA Connor Norby vs RHP — 28 PA; +82% Contact, +44% Hard Hit & +.266 Expected Batting Average
• TOR Alejandro Kirk vs RHP — 28 PA; +93% Contact, +63% Hard Hit & +.338 Expected Batting Average
• TOR Bo Bichette vs RHP — 32 PA; +80% Contact, +56% Hard Hit & +.295 Expected Batting Average
• LAD Michael Conforto vs RHP — 32 PA; +82% Contact, +46% Hard Hit & +.33600000000 Expected Batting Average

(For transparency's sake, I tweak hitter's handedness splits to adjust for plate appearance sample size)

LAGHEZZAS LEANS:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

TODAY'S ACTION:

1️⃣THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+191) on Fanduel

1. Isaac Collins, MIL
2. William Contreras, MIL
3. Michael Conforto, LAD

2️⃣THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+148) on Fanduel

1. Connor Norby, MIA
2. Alejandro Kirk, TOR
3. Bo Bichette, TOR

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

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