Contact! Saturday's Base Hit Builder

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. We isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last ~25 PAs or so.

Today's SP Contact Targets: (+90% Zone-Contact & +40% Hard Hit Rates)

• CLE Logan Allen — 78.0 IP; 92.9% Zone-Contact, 47.1% Hard Hit vs. DET
• COL German Marquez — 83.1 IP; 91.6% Zone-Contact, 45.7% Hard Hit vs. CHW
• MIL Chad Patrick — 89.2 IP; 91.0% Zone-Contact, 43.7% Hard Hit vs. MIA
• MIA Cal Quantrill — 73.0 IP; 90.1% Zone-Contact, 43.3% Hard Hit vs. MIL
• ATH Luis Severino — 104.1 IP; 89.5% Zone-Contact, 43.9% Hard Hit vs. SF

Opposing Hitters w/+75% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.260 Expected Batting Average, Last ~Two Weeks vs. LHP/RHP

• DET Javier Baez vs LHP — 23 PA; +78% Contact, +65% Hard Hit & +.290 Expected Batting Average
• CHW Miguel Vargas vs RHP — 29 PA; +83% Contact, +54% Hard Hit & +.283 Expected Batting Average
• MIA Connor Norby vs RHP — 35 PA; +84% Contact, +47% Hard Hit & +.310 Expected Batting Average
• MIL William Contreras vs RHP — 25 PA; +82% Contact, +52% Hard Hit & +.335 Expected Expected Batting Average
• SF Jung Hoo Lee vs RHP — 28 PA; +89% Contact, +42% Hard Hit & +.260 Expected Batting Average

(For transparency's sake, I'll tweak hitter's handedness splits to adjust for plate appearance sample size)

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

TODAY'S ACTION: FOUR-LEG BASE HIT (+203) PARLAY ON DRFATKINGS

• DET Javier Baez
• CHW Miguel Vargas
• MIL William Contreras
• SF Jung Hoo Lee

(No disrespect to my guy Connor Norby, he's getting a scheduled day off today)

✋ Fourth of July parlays split 1-1. Somehow 15 runs scored in Wrigley and we finish with one total hit from three batters (womp womp). Afternoon parlay came through (trumpet sound). Kyle Teel didn't get the start, diminishing the win so we finish slightly in the red.

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

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