Contact! Thursday's Base Hit Builder

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock.

We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last ~25 PAs or so.

Today's SP Contact Targets: (+90% Zone-Contact & +40% Hard Hit Rates)

• ATL Bryce Elder — 68.0 IP; 93.9% Zone-Contact, 47.2% Hard Hit vs. LAA
• WSH Jake Irvin — 99.0 IP; 89.7% Zone-Contact, 47.6% Hard Hit vs. DET
• NYM David Peterson — 95.1 IP; 89.6% Zone-Contact, 45.2% Hard Hit vs. MIL
• ARI Brandon Pfaadt — 85.1 IP; 89.5% Zone-Contact, 49.5% Hard Hit vs. SF
• KC Seth Lugo — 88.2 IP; 89.5% Zone-Contact, 46.9% Hard Hit vs. SEA

Opposing Hitters w/+80% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.275 Expected Batting Average, Last ~Two Weeks vs. LHP/RHP

• DET Colt Keith vs RHP — 42 PA; +82% Contact, +46% Hard Hit & +.290 Expected Batting Average
• MIL Joey Ortiz vs LHP — 20 PA; +87% Contact, +40% Hard Hit & +.292 Expected Batting Average
• SEA Dominic Canzone vs RHP — 30 PA; +83% Contact, +48% Hard Hit & +.338 Expected Batting Average

(For transparency's sake, I tweak hitter's handedness splits to adjust for plate appearance sample size)

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

TODAY'S AFTERNOON ACTION: THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+230) on Fanduel

1. Colt Keith. DET
2. Joey Ortiz, MIL
3. Dominic Canzone, SEA

Yesterday stunk (again) — that one really stung. Three of four picks cashed easily and the one failure was the only Tiger to not get a hit in an 11-run breakout.. sheesh!

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

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