Contact! Thursday's Base Hit Builder

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last ~25 PAs or so.

Today's SP Contact Targets With +90% Zone-Contact & +42% Hard Hit Rates

• LAA Jack Kochanowicz — 91.1 IP; 91.8% Zone-Contact, 45.5% Hard Hit vs. TEX
• STL Miles Mikolas — 87.1 IP; 90.2% Zone-Contact, 44.9% Hard Hit vs. WSH
• MIA Cal Quantrill — 76.2 IP; 89.7% Zone-Contact, 43.6% Hard Hit vs. CIN

Opposing Hitters w/+77% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.260 Expected Batting Average 

• TEX Josh Smith vs RHP — 37 PA; +91% Contact, +45% Hard Hit & +.371 Expected Batting Average
• TEX Marcus Semien vs RHP — 32 PA; +82% Contact, +44% Hard Hit & +.298 Expected Batting Average
• WAS Luis Garcia vs RHP — 28 PA; +80% Contact, +46% Hard Hit & +.302 Expected Batting Average
• CIN TJ Friedl vs RHP — 28 PA; +86% Contact, +44% Hard Hit & +.211* Expected Batting Average
  

(For transparency's sake, I tweak hitters' handedness splits to adjust for proper plate appearance sample sizes)

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

TJ Friedl falls a little bit short of our usual hurdle to entry, but given the optimal ballpark in Cincy plus Quantrill's .287 BAA, I'll take my chances. That MIA/CIN game's also the earliest on the slate (5:10 pm EST) — so if you miss out for whatever reason, roll with the other three at night.

TODAY'S ACTION: FOUR-LEG BASE HIT (+227) PARLAY ON FANDUEL

• TEX Josh Smith
• TEX Marcus Semien
• WAS Luis Garcia
• CIN TJ Friedl