More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last two weeks (min 25 PAs).
YESTERDAY'S THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+172) GETS HOME FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW!
Today's Contact SP Targets: (+89% Zone-Contact & +41% Hard Hit Rates)
All Opposing Hitters w/+77% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.270 Expected Batting Average, Last ~Two Weeks vs. LHP/RHP
LAGHEZZAS LEANS:
Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.
Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.
Initially when I saw so many results, I hoped for a decent amount of action, but Neto left injured and may not play, leaving Tauchman as the only early bat. Then, I know I'm a huge math geek and the numbers are there but when I choose to avoid facing the likes of George Kirby and Drew Rasmussen, don't be shocked.
NOTE: If Zach Neto ends up playing, I'm pairing him with Mike Tauchman on the afternoon slate.
TODAY'S ACTION: -- THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+208) on Fanduel
Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.
BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY
Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.
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