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Contact! Wednesday's Base Hit Builder
Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last two weeks (min 25 PAs).

YESTERDAY'S THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+172) GETS HOME FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW!

Today's Contact SP Targets: (+89% Zone-Contact & +41% Hard Hit Rates)

  • SEA George Kirby — 30.2 IP; 92.3% Zone-Contact, 46.1% Hard Hit vs. MIN
  • STL Erick Fedde — 84.0 IP; 91.4% Zone-Contact, 41.2% Hard Hit vs. CHC
  • BOS Richard Fitts — 21.0 IP; 91.1% Zone-Contact, 42.6% Hard Hit vs. LAA
  • ARI Zac Gallen — 91.2 IP; 90.7% Zone-Contact, 46.7% Hard Hit vs. CHW
  • BAL Brandon Young — 8.2 IP; 89.5% Zone-Contact, 44.0% Hard Hit vs. TEX
  • NYM Clay Holmes — 83.0 IP; 89.5% Zone-Contact, 42.4% Hard Hit vs. ATL
  • TB Drew Rasmussen — 79.1 IP; 89.4% Zone-Contact, 44.9% Hard Hit vs. KC

All Opposing Hitters w/+77% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.270 Expected Batting Average, Last ~Two Weeks vs. LHP/RHP

  • MIN Ty France — 28 PA; +82% Contact, +41% Hard Hit & +.302 Expected Batting Average
  • CHC Michael Busch — 31 PA; +81% Contact, +42% Hard Hit & +.314 Expected Batting Average
  • LAA Zach Neto — 37 PA; +80% Contact, +46% Hard Hit & +.283 Expected Batting Average
  • CHW Mike Tauchman — 29 PA; +82% Contact, +48% Hard Hit & +.271 Expected Batting Average
  • TEX Corey Seager — 43 PA; +77% Contact, +64% Hard Hit & +.314 Expected Batting Average
  • ATL Matt Olson — 32 PA; +78% Contact, +50% Hard Hit & +.277 Expected Batting Average
  • KC Jonathan India — 39 PA; +85% Contact, +40% Hard Hit & +.278 Expected Batting Average

LAGHEZZAS LEANS:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

Initially when I saw so many results, I hoped for a decent amount of action, but Neto left injured and may not play, leaving Tauchman as the only early bat. Then, I know I'm a huge math geek and the numbers are there but when I choose to avoid facing the likes of George Kirby and Drew Rasmussen, don't be shocked.

NOTE: If Zach Neto ends up playing, I'm pairing him with Mike Tauchman on the afternoon slate.

 TODAY'S ACTION: --  THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+208) on Fanduel

  1. Michael Busch, CHC
  2. Corey Seager, TEX 
  3. Matt Olson, ATL

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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