Could A's Joey Estes Be the Odd-Man Out of the 2025 Rotation?

The Athletics young starter, Joey Estes, has started Spring Training in a bit of a rut. The 23-year-old has pitched in four innings so far, a very small sample size, but he has given up three runs, struck out three, and thrown 69 pitches (50 strikes) in that span. Estes is throwing strikes, but all three of the runs he has given up have come off of home runs.

Estes ended his 2024 campaign with an 8.71 ERA in September. He threw 20.2 innings that month, striking out nine and giving up seven home runs. Estes throws strikes; it may be the thing he does best. He carried a 5% walk-rate in 2024 (which ranked in the top five percent), his first full season as a major-league starter.

With that being said, he struggles to strike batters out; he carried a 16.9% strikeout rate, which ranked in the bottom eight percent in the league. To take it even further, Estes had a .453 expected slugging percentage against him, which ranks in the bottom nine percent in the league.

Four innings in Spring Training is an extremely small sample size, and Estes may make a big improvement by the end of Spring Training. However, there is quite a bit of competition for the final two spots in the A's rotation.

Mitch Spence is having a very good start to spring, as are Hogan Harris and Brady Basso. Osvaldo Bido and J.T. Ginn are a part of the competition for the final two spots, but they are having slow starts, similar to Estes.

That means there are currently six pitchers competing for two final starting rotation spots. One of Harris or Basso may find themselves in the bullpen as long-relief lefty options, so the number could come down to five. The A's also view Jacob Lopez as a starter, so he may be in this competition as well.

It may behoove the A's to option Estes to Triple-A Las Vegas, given that he is still very young, and he won't turn 24 until October. He still has two MiLB options, allowing the A's to have him work through some things in Triple-A.

The caveat to that plan would be, that Estes does not have the best track record in Triple-A. He is very much a "fly-ball" pitcher, which does not play well in the very hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League that Triple-A Las Vegas plays in.

So, how much could Estes work on in Triple-A without hurting his confidence? That would have to be a question that the A's coaching staff decides, and they may decide it would be better for Estes to work through things with the major-league club, or they may not.

Estes' home run rate per fly ball in Triple-A the past two seasons has hovered around 20%, which is way too high. With the A's last season that rate was down to 10.1% for the season, but that was aided by the Oakland Coliseum a touch. At home, that rate was 9%, while on the road it was 11.3%. Moving to West Sacramento, this could become a factor that he has to learn to pitch around.

In the next two to two-and-a-half weeks, the A's will probably have an idea of what they want their pitching staff to look like to start the 2025 season. Meaning Estes has about two weeks and maybe a couple of outings to prove that he deserves one of the final two rotation spots over the rest of the competition.

If not, Estes will find himself starting the 2025 campaign in Triple-A, which may prove to be beneficial, as he is still a young pitcher.