Could This Type of Deal Convince Astros Star To Sign Long-Term Contract?

The Houston Astros are putting together another remarkable season.

Perhaps that shouldn't be a surprise considering what they have accomplished ever since their dynastic run began in 2017. But after they underwent a winter full of changes that saw some of their best players leave in free agency and via trade, many predicted the Astros would finally take a real step back.

That hasn't happened, though.

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Houston continues to be the class of the AL West, entering Thursday with a 5.5 game lead over the second-place Seattle Mariners while owning a record of 47-33.

And after they swept the Philadelphia Phillies, the Astros are now on pace to win just shy of 100 games, an incredible feat considering how many injuries they have suffered already.

One of the reasons why Houston has played so well this season is because Jeremy Pena is performing like a superstar.

With a slash line of .324/.379/.492, 11 homers and 40 RBI, the 27-year-old is on pace to produce the best regular season of his career.

Pena looked like the Astros' shortstop of the future ever since he went on an incredible run in the playoffs when he secured both the ALCS and World Series MVP awards, but what he's doing in 2025 is putting him in the upper echelon of the best players in baseball.

That's why the fanbase might have gotten a bit of a deja vu when it was reported that Pena turned down an extension offer and signed superagent Scott Boras to represent him.

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It's rare that Boras doesn't take his clients to the open market.

What makes this situation unique is that Pena still has two more years of club control remaining, so that is plenty of time for Houston to negotiate and get something done before he becomes a free agent.

But what type of contract would interest both Pena and Boras enough to where he'd ink a long-term deal?

Michael Shapiro of Chron.com proposed a contract.

"I doubt Pena's deal will come close to the $300-plus-million contracts that are increasingly common in the sport. Surpassing even $200 million seems unlikely ... Raise the offer to even $150 million over five years, and maybe Houston can land another franchise cornerstone at fair value. Doing so would significantly help maintain an extended Golden Era," he wrote.

That might feel low, but consider this.

Willy Adames hit free agency at 29 years old this past offseason, the same age that Pena is supposed to hit the open market.

Adames signed a seven-year, $182 million contract for an AAV of $26 million per season.

Pena is on pace to have roughly the same bWAR value or even more than his counterpart, although he's going to have way less production in terms of home runs and RBI.

At five years and $150 million, the $30 million AAV is comparable to Adames despite the lack of sheer offensive numbers, a contract that seems fair on the surface.

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Of course, both Pena and Boras might disagree with that evaluation of the rising star, but the superagent also doesn't have a great track record about what his clients are worth on the open market based on what has happened the past two winters.

Keep an eye out on extension talks continuing between the two sides.

There's no doubt the Astros would love to lock him into this type of contract if they could.

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