Cubs look to offseason after elimination from playoff race

The Cubs plan to add an established starting pitcher to their rotation this winter, says Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The club has Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in four spots. Per Mooney’s report, adding one more name to that mix would push guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski down the depth chart.

“In one sense, you feel like you’re in a solid position because we have a number of young pitchers [who] have had success in the big leagues,” manager Craig Counsell said. “Now, with all of them, there’s been injuries. And it’s not a big sample as of yet. But that’s also kind of the nature of pitching. It’s the nature of young pitching. So we’re in a good spot in terms of that area of depth. But as we saw this year, it disappeared quickly.”

The quartet of Imanaga, Steele, Taillon and Assad have been the club’s best starters this year, both in quality and quantity. Each has an ERA of 3.41 or lower at the moment, and all of them have tossed between 130 and 175 innings this season.

However, as Counsell alluded to, there were also some challenges. Steele made several trips to the injured list, one for a left hamstring strain and another for left elbow tendinitis. The Cubs had picked up a $16.5M club option to bring back Kyle Hendricks, but that ultimately proved to be a misstep. Hendricks struggled severely enough to get moved to the bullpen. He eventually retook a rotation spot but had a 6.28 ERA for the year overall. Wicks is currently on the IL for the third time this year, having gone on the shelf for a left forearm strain and two separate stints for right oblique strains. Brown hasn’t pitched since June due to a stress reaction in his neck. Horton last pitched in May, getting shut down with a subscapularis strain and suffering a setback while trying to return to the mound.

An argument could be made for rolling into 2025 with the same front four, letting the group of Wicks, Brown, Horton and Wesneski fight for the fifth spot. But with so many issues in 2024, adding more security makes plenty of sense. None of those four are fully established. Wesneski is the only one with more than 81 big-league innings pitched, and his 186 frames have been split between the bullpen and rotation. Wicks, Brown and Wesneski still have options, meaning they could be stretched out in Triple-A if not needed on the big league staff. Horton isn’t yet on the 40-man and doesn’t need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until December 2025.

The Cubs also might not have much else on their winter to-do list. Even if Cody Bellinger eventually opts out, the outfield will still have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Mike Tauchman, with Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Brennen Davis at Triple-A. The infield has Isaac Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch, with Matt Shaw knocking on the door. Miguel Amaya has shown some progress at the plate and Christian Bethancourt can be retained for next year if the Cubs believe in his recent performance. Moises Ballesteros will also be pushing for a job soon.

The bullpen arguably should be a focus but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had made it clear he would prefer not to make free agent splashes there. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, since Hoyer was hired in November 2020, the club hasn’t given a multi-year deal to any reliever. And of the one-year deals they have given out, the only guy to get more than $5M was Héctor Neris, who got $9M.

Unless a change is coming in the approach to bullpen construction, starting pitching is a logical target with the position player group in solid shape. And there should be some powder dry for reinforcements. The club went narrowly over the $237M competitive balance tax this year, with RosterResource currently pegging their number a bit over $238M. Next year’s tally is only at $126M right now. Arbitration raises for guys like Paredes and Steele will undoubtedly add to that number, and it will grow significantly if Bellinger decides to stay. However, there will still be room for a notable contract.

Hoyer hasn’t played at the top of the market in terms of starting pitching but has given out some mid-market deals. As shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker again,  Imanaga, Taillon and Marcus Stroman have each received guarantees between $53M and $71M, the largest guarantees the Cubs have given to starting pitchers in the Hoyer era.

This winter’s starting pitching class will be topped by guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and Blake Snell, assuming Snell stays healthy and opts out of his deal. Signing any of those guys would likely require the Cubs to go to a new level of spending, getting into nine-figure territory. If they want to stay in that Stroman/Taillon/Imanaga tier, they’d probably be debating names like Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta. Hall-of-Fame-bound veterans Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will be limited to short-term deals since they are both in their 40s and coming off injury-plagued years in 2024.

The trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year, but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Similarly, the Rays seem to have many rotation options, with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen returning from long absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on.

It will be an interesting offseason for the Cubs. Their signing of Swanson heading into 2023 seemed to signal a wish to return to contention after a couple of rebuilding years. They had a solid but unspectacular year in 2023, winning 83 games. They may top that here in 2024, currently at 80-76, but will miss the postseason again. Pressure figures to be high for a club that hasn’t made the postseason in a 162-game slate since 2018, but a lot of good elements are in place, and a few finishing touches could perhaps get them over the hump in 2025.