The next five weeks will be an exhilarating, yet stressful time to follow the Kansas City Royals.
In a wide-open American League, the Royals have thus far failed to answer the bell in 2025. At 38-41, they're 3 1/2 games back in the Wild Card race despite having the league's 21st-toughest schedule.
Because they're a small-market team that made the playoffs last season, the Royals would much rather buy at the trade deadline than sell. They've got All-Star pitcher Seth Lugo slated to opt out and enter free agency this winter, with Kris Bubic right behind him in 2026. But if they tumble farther below .500, selling might be the smartest long-term play.
In that case, Lugo would be the biggest trade chip the Royals have to work with, and could even wind up becoming the best pitcher traded at the deadline. There's one National League contender who might make a stronger push for him than anyone else.
On Tuesday, ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel wrote a trade deadline preview in which they guessed Lugo had a 40 percent chance of being traded, and among the top fits for the All-Star right-hander, they listed the pitching-needy Chicago Cubs.
"Lugo has posted mid-3.00s or lower ERAs for five seasons despite having below-average fastball velocity and good-not-great strikeout rates. His ability to strand runners and limit hard contact comes in part due to his nine different pitches," the insiders wrote.
"With a Nathan Eovaldi-type contract awaiting Lugo in free agency, Kansas City could opt to move him, especially if Cole Ragans' injured shoulder doesn't improve."
Eovaldi got a three-year, $75 million contract from the Texas Rangers entering his age-35 season. Lugo will be 36 next year, but he's thrown over 700 fewer innings than Eovaldi, and his stats since coming to Kansas City are superior to Eovaldi's at the time of his deal.
The Cubs only have one starter (Shota Imanaga) that they feel good about sending to the mound in a playoff series. They also have a loaded farm system that's heavy on major league ready position players.
If Chicago calls on Lugo, the Royals will have to at least wait them out until the deadline to see how high they can drive up the offer.
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