Cubs’ nightmare scenario for 2025 MLB playoffs

The Chicago Cubs recently notched their first MLB Playoff berth since 2020, advancing as the top Wild Card seed in the National League. For much of the season, the Cubs battled alongside the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central Division, but an extremely hot streak from the Brewers during the second half widened the gap. Nevertheless, the Chicago Cubs are Postseason-bound as one of the biggest darkhorses in all of baseball.

The Cubs have won seven of their last eight games, closing the Regular Season with remaining series against the Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, and St. Louis Cardinals. They also own the MLB’s second-highest run differential at +133, right behind their divisional foe in Milwaukee. They’ve been ranked within the league’s top-10 in hitting throughout the majority of the season, also ranking third on the base paths with 154 stolen bases in an all-around effort.

With the Cubs clinching the top seed in the Wild Card, but likely not able to win their division, their playoff scenarios are truly limited and their fate has basically been decided as the No. 4-seed. However, anything can happen in the game of baseball, so let’s explore any worst-case scenarios the Cubs may want to avoid.

Cubs’ worst playoffs situation

With a 97% chance to earn the No. 4-seed in the MLB Postseason, the Chicago Cubs are likely to face the San Diego Padres, who are currently 83-69 with an 82% chance to end as the No. 5-seed. The Cubs have just a 1% chance to end as the No. 1 overall seed in the NL, but at five games back of the leading Brewers, it would take a massive collapse on Milwaukee’s part along with the Cubs winning-out.

The Cubs stand an even lower chance to be seeded an lower than No. 4, given their +10 advantage in the Wild Card and five-game lead over the Padres. This final few stretch of games should offer players a chance to get healthy and offer deeper players some new looks before the rigors of the Postseason begin.

The Cubs will also be dealing with an injury to Kyle Tucker, who Craig Counsell continues to give updates on as the playoffs approach. Tucker leads the team in OBP at .381 and has also scored a team-high 89 runs. His involvement in their postseason run will be crucial for the integral part he had in getting them here in the first place.

In facing their likeliest opponent in the San Diego Padres, the Chicago Cubs have split their season series at 3-3. The games have been rather close in nature, but the Cubs have proven to be the more explosive team on offense, finishing the series strong thanks to their consistent batting. If Chicago can dial things in from their pitching perspective and find some consistency from the bullpen, they should have the upper hand coming into this series against the Padres.

Given they’re able to win their matchup against the Padres, the Cubs will then have to take on the leading Milwaukee Brewers in a 1 vs. 4 matchup. The Cubs actually lead the Brewers 7-6 during their Regular Season meetings, so the Cubs could be confident in testing the Brewers during a seven-game series. Both teams have outperformed themselves on their home fields this season and it would certainly be interesting to see a regional playoff series of this magnitude and importance.