Cubs Slapped With Concerning Outlook With Playoffs Looming

A former big-league reliever delivered a blunt assessment Tuesday of the Chicago Cubs’ pitching staff, raising fresh questions about how far the club can go in October even as a playoff berth appears all but secured.

Adam Ottavino, appearing on Foul Territory, named the Cubs his biggest concern heading into the postseason.

“I just don’t see enough swing-and-miss with their pitching to get through some of the big boys in the NL,” he said.

The comment landed as the Cubs sat 87-70, second in the National League Central and 11 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Chicago is positioned as a likely No. 4 seed if the season ended today and would open the Wild Card round against San Diego.

That path already looks steep. Baseball-Reference listed the Cubs’ World Series odds at 10.8 percent despite postseason chances above 99.9 percent. Four rounds separate a Wild Card team from a championship.

Ottavino’s critique tracks with the numbers. Chicago ranks 16th in staff ERA at 4.16 and 26th in strikeouts with about 1,219. The rotation sits 27th in WAR and the bullpen 28th, according to an ESPN ranking of playoff rotations that placed the Cubs 13th among contenders.

Deadline additions Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Aaron Civale added experience. They have not produced consistent swing-and-miss stuff against the league’s better lineups. Shota Imanaga has been the most durable starter, yet the staff as a whole has allowed 228 to 229 home runs, among the highest totals in baseball.

Injuries have compounded the problem. Justin Steele, Cade Horton and Ben Brown have spent significant time on the injured list.

The bullpen presents another October risk. The Cubs lack a settled closer. Jacob Webb led the team with nine saves but has struggled lately. Daniel Palencia has shown late-season promise, yet the ninth inning remains unsettled for a club that converted only four of 12 recent save chances at one stretch.

An Athletic ranking of 13 postseason contenders slotted Chicago 10th, ahead of only Texas, Houston and the White Sox. Analysts noted that summer trades overhauled the staff on paper while the results “leave much to be desired.”

Manager Craig Counsell’s group still boasts elite defense and a potent offense led by Pete Crow-Armstrong. Those strengths can paper over ordinary pitching in April through September. They rarely suffice across a best-of-three Wild Card series and three more rounds against Milwaukee, Los Angeles or Atlanta.

October baseball rewards missing bats. Elite NL clubs generate strikeouts at a higher clip and limit hard contact. The Cubs have leaned on contact management and defense. That formula can steal a series. It is a thin foundation for a World Series run.

Fans have watched this pattern before. Last year Chicago reached the NLDS and lost to Milwaukee. The current staff, even with veteran reinforcements, has not clearly improved the swing-and-miss profile Ottavino flagged.

Five regular-season games remain, continuing with Miami at Wrigley Field. Seeding and home-field advantage in the Wild Card round are still in play. Those details matter. They do not erase the larger concern that the Cubs’ pitching may not travel deep into October.

Ottavino’s warning is not a prediction of elimination. It is a reminder that reaching the postseason and winning it are different tasks. For a franchise that has captured one World Series in more than a century, the gap between those tasks looks uncomfortably wide this fall.