Cubs vs. Cardinals MLB parlay: +1000 SGP for 'Sunday Night Baseball'  

Lars Nootbar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145, Bet365)

Fresh off a three-hit night on Friday, Lars Nootbar finds himself in another great matchup against right-hander Javier Assad. He is swinging a hot bat over the last couple of weeks, bouncing back from a cold April.

When it comes to facing right-handed pitching, Nootbar is the most consistent Cardinal. He has a 135 wRC+ and an impressive .214 isolated power. Perhaps the best quality about Nootbar is his elite eye — he has a (-2) K-BB%!

Nootbar has a 42% extra-base hit rate against right-handed pitching and is second on the team in home runs (5) behind the free-swinging Nolan Gorman.

Negative regression is looming for Javier Assad, who has a .238 BABIP and 88% strand rate in his opening 10 starts. Despite a 1.70 ERA, expected metrics are about two runs higher (3.32 xERA, 4.2 xFIP).

Lefties have had the most success against Assad in the early going and he finally looked mortal against Atlanta. I expect that to continue against a lefty-heavy Cardinal lineup. Obviously it’s a small sample size, but Nootbar is 2-for-6 with a pair of doubles against Assad in his career.

Despite hitting just .227 with five home runs this season, Nootbar’s underlying metrics are worth buying. The lefty is inside the top 15% of all hitters in xSLG (.488) and has a career-best 50.5% hard-hit rate (90th percentile).

Christopher Morel Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140, Bet365)

Christopher Morel ranks inside the top 10% of all hitters in xSLG (.516) this season, and has a .274 xBA, which ranks in the 76th percentile. Yet, he is hitting just .206 with a .389 slugging percentage.

Morel has taken strides this season, even if the results haven’t followed. His walk rate has dropped over 10% and he’s making much better decisions at the plate. Every time he is at the plate he is an extra-base threat.

Sonny Gray takes the mound for the Cardinals and flashes elite command. He’s boasting the best strikeout rate (31.2%) and xERA (3.18) of his career. The biggest change for Gray is that he has filled up the zone a lot more.

That’s a good thing for Morel, as Gray’s 56% zone rate is the highest of his career. He dares the opposition to beat him with a deep arsenal and despite the subtle improvements to his pitch mix, Gray still has some issues with barrel (career-worst 7.6%). He also ranks in the bottom 28% of pitchers in average exit velocity.

All this to say that someone with elite bat speed like Morel can make Gray pay for filling up the zone. Thanks to an improved eye and less chases out of the zone, Morel has become a viable middle-of-the-order bat for Chicago.

Positive regression is coming for Morel, it’s just a matter of when.

Sonny Gray Over 17.5 Outs (-170, Bet365)

As I mentioned earlier, Gray has attacked the zone at a career-high rate this season, and with that comes a 66.1% first-pitch strike percentage.

Since his return from injury (5 IP, 0R vs. PHI) where he was on a pitch count, Gray has thrown at least six innings in 5-of-7 starts. Thanks to an improved walk rate and his ability to get ahead of hitters early and often, Gray should continue to find success on the mound.

All the underlying metrics back Gray’s long-term success here. Despite his xERA (3.18) behind slightly higher than actual (2.87), his xFIP (2.58) is even lower! He should see some positive regression in strand rate and home runs allowed — both of which are higher than his career averages.

The Cubs rank 22nd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and over the last 15 days, they are dead-last in general offensively. We’ve seen their struggles on display and there’s no reason to believe Gray won’t have the upper-hand come Sunday night.

Expect a quality start out of the right-hander as he continues to string together one of his best seasons to date.