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Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes talk before playing the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field on Sept. 17, 2025. Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

D-backs' Rotation Future Faces Massive Question

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Alex D'Agostino | Last updated Oct 30, 2025 5:35 PM ET

The Arizona Diamondbacks' starting rotation was one of the multiple reasons that contributed to the second straight year without a playoff berth. In particular, a devastating injury set the avalanche of bad luck and underperformance in motion.

The injury, of course, was to ace starter Corbin Burnes, who lost year one (and half of year two) of his $210 million contract with the D-backs to Tommy John Surgery.

But the future of Arizona's rotation now faces more questions. Obviously, there is intrigue as to who will fill out the rest of the group, with Zac Gallen set to depart in free agency and Merrill Kelly already departed via trade.

But perhaps the biggest question about the future rotation has to do with Burnes upon his eventual return: will the former Cy Young winner be able to regain his full ace form with Arizona?

Will Corbin Burnes Regain Ace Form For Arizona Diamondbacks?

Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Burnes ended his 2025 prematurely, but with a very impressive 2.66 ERA. It did take several uncharacteristically uninspiring starts to get to that point, but eventually the ace began to look more and more like the arm worthy of a $200-plus million deal.

The question is just how much of his previous success can be retained after undergoing significant elbow surgery for the first time in his eight-year MLB career.

Sometimes pitchers lose velocity or command after such a procedure, while other times they come back throwing harder.

But Burnes, though he does throw hard and does rely heavily on the bite of his trademark cutter, is more of a cerebral pitcher than one who depends entirely on stuff or velocity.

The issue will be whether or not he can maintain his command without developing a walk problem or leaving low-velocity cutters over the plate (a 400-footer waiting to happen).

Ultimately, there's no way to predict that outcome fully. Burnes' career 3.15 ERA and Cy Young pedigree suggest he's capable of adapting however necessary, but there does lie a possibility he may not be the top-tier ace he's been in the past — especially in his age-31 season.

Then again, future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander came back from Tommy John Surgery to win the Cy Young Award in his age-39 season in 2021. Not that Burnes and Verlander are necessarily the same caliber of pitcher, but it is quite possible to rebound from such a procedure in a positive direction.

The other factor then becomes whether or not Burnes elects to remain in Arizona after his first two abbreviated seasons. He has an opt-out in his deal after 2026.

It does seem likely he'll choose to stay in Arizona, given the fact that he lost a large chunk of both 2025 and 2026, and chose the D-backs partially to stay close to his family in his home state, but that is not a guarantee, either.

Ultimately, Arizona's rotation will depend very heavily on the direction Burnes takes upon his return.

If he's able to get back to ace form, filling out the rest of the rotation becomes less difficult. If he struggles, the D-backs may have a tough choice to make.