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The Arizona Diamondbacks take the field to play their Opening Day game against the Chicago Cubs at Chase Field in Phoenix, on March 27, 2025. Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Diamondbacks 2026 Projections Reveal Some Surprises

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Jack Sommers | Last updated Dec 28, 2025 8:00 AM ET

The Arizona Diamondbacks' stated goal this offseason has been to upgrade their pitching staff. That was the clear priority set by GM Mike Hazen from the very first day after the season ended, and has been reiterated multiple times.

To date, the main additions have been the return of Merrill Kelly and the signing of Michael Soroka. These two starters — along with Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Eduardo Rodriguez form the top five on the rotation depth chart. James McCann has been brought back also to fill the backup catcher role again.

That constitutes the extent of the work on the major league roster to this point. A few relievers and position players have been signed to minor league contracts with invites to spring training.

At this juncture I decided to take a closer look at the projections to see where the D-backs stand and where they still need to improve. Doing so revealed a surprise or two along the way.

ZiPS and Steamer Projections Averages for the Diamondbacks

Each year FanGraphs publishes ZiPS and Steamer projections, created by Dan Szymborski and Jared Cross respectively. They average the rates of those two systems and set them to FanGraphs' own Depth Chart playing time projections.

ZiPS has not been completely rolled out yet, as Szymborski reveals them one team at a time. When he's done in another month or so his projections will then be fed into the system and the fully updated Depth Chart projections will be available. What's available on that site now only consists of Steamer projections, not the full average.

The D-backs projections are out however. So I decided to get a jump and create my own playing time projections for the Diamondbacks, with the roster as currently constituted. I averaged the rates of the two system, which is what Fangraphs will do shortly. This is the result

Starting Pitcher Projections

On average, the D-backs have used about 13 different starting pitchers per year. Last year was an exception, as they used only nine, and one of those was "opener" Jalen Beeks. But in prior years that number has been between 13-16, including openers.

The table below show reasonable depth, but no true ace-like frontline starter. Of course a number of the pitchers expected to get at least a few spot starts also are likely to have some relief innings as well. The projected 4.10 starting pitcher's ERA surprisingly reflects a marked improvement over the 4.29 starter's ERA in 2025.

That is due in large part to Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez expected to knock a run or more off their 2025 ERA. I conservatively project Corbin Burnes to get about 10 starts in 2026. Cristian Mena is projected to fill a key role as a spot starter and long reliever.

Jack Sommers

Relief Pitcher Projections

This is perhaps the most surprising aspect of the projections. The bullpen is projected to get positive contributions from many of the young relievers acquired in trade at the 2025 trade deadline, as well as previous internal options. Below table is sorted by projected innings pitched.

The 4.01 projected ERA would represent an incredible improvement from last year's 4.82 bullpen ERA. 2.5 WAR from the relief core would also be a marked improvement from last year when they were in negative territory.

Of course the D-backs are expected to still add to the relief pitching group, but as currently constituted, I would expect Brandyn Garcia to carry a heavy load from the left side. So he is actually projected to throw the most innings. But A.J. Puk, despite a projection for just 25 innings, is tied with Kevin Ginkel for the most WAR.

Jack Sommers

Position Player Projections

The position player projections are more or less as expected, with Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, and Gabriel Moreno carrying the bulk of the production load.

But Jordan Lawlar's projection is reasonably good considering the struggles he's had at the major league level. Seeing him come in with the fifth-highest WAR projection despite giving him fewer than 400 PA was definitely a surprise.

First base and DH from the left-hand batters box remain the biggest weakness in the position player group. Overall the .737 OPS projection represents a large step back from the last two seasons and would be the lowest team OPS since 2022.

The defense is expected to be better than 2025 over a full season however, so the overall WAR total of 26.1 is similar to the 26.9 total posted in 2025.

Jack Sommers

Summary

With a total WAR projection of 40 (14 from pitchers and 26 from position players), the D-backs already appear to have a chance to be about four games better than last year, when they tallied 35.7 total FanGraphs WAR (26.9 + 8.7).

Replacement level is roughly 47 wins, and last year the team should have won about 83 games, but fell three shy of that with an 80-82 record. That was mostly due to poor high-leverage work in closing situations by the bullpen once Puk and Justin Martinez were injured from April 18 onwards.

The D-backs have not added to their bullpen, and could really have used a closer. The "bang for the buck" they could attain from having a lockdown closer in the ninth inning, supported by their young depth, would have been the fastest way to improvement. But this front office has eschewed spending big on a closer throughout their nine-year tenure.

They may still add a solid reliever or two to this core, although it's late in the game to do that perhaps. Still, D-backs fans can be encouraged there is still a solid base to work with.

Of course what happens with the Ketel Marte trade rumors, and the supposed imminent signing of Alex Bregman could change the landscape considerably. Stay tuned for further updates.