Diamondbacks Miracle March Continues vs Dodgers in Playoff Chase

Diamondbacks and Dodgers Pitching Matchup

Left-hander Blake Snell is on the bump for the Dodgers, and right-hander Ryne Nelson makes the start for Arizona

Blake Snell is still an extremely effective pitcher when healthy. His mid-90's fastball is complimented with a devastating changeup and curveball that generate a ridiculous amount of swing-and-miss (46% and 47% respectively).

After a couple of rocky outings in late August, early September, he has been lights out his last two starts. He's thrown 13 straight shutout innings, given up four hits, walked four, and struck out 23.

The good news for Arizona is one of those rockier outings was against the D-backs, who knocked him out in the sixth inning on August 29, scoring three runs off him in 5.1 innings.

Over his last three starts against Arizona, Snell has pitched just 11 innings and given up nine runs on 15 hits and six walks.

Ryne Nelson has been the Diamondbacks' most consistent starter since entering the rotation for good following the Corbin Burnes injury. His 7-3 record could easily be four or five wins better, as he leads all of MLB starters in wins lost by the bullpen with eight.

He last faced the Dodgers on May 20, going five innings and allowing one run in a no-decision. The D-backs lost that game in extra innings on a Shelby Miller blown save loss.

Nelson is extremely fastball reliant. He uses his four-seamer 63% of the time, which is eight percentage points higher than the next highest starter. He gets great extension off his 6'3" frame, and the fastball has generated +24 Run Value, which is in the 99th percentile.

Nelson's breaking and off-speed offerings leave something to be desired, however, as they're -3 and -2 runs respectively. It might seem like an easy strategy for teams to just game plan and lay off those pitches and attack the fastball.

But Nelson does a great job of riding the pitch to the top of the zone, inducing a lot of weaker fly ball contact. His home run per fly ball rate is 9.7%, compared to a league average 12.3%. His BABIP on fly balls (Batting average on balls in play, i.e. non-homers) is .070, compared to a league average .090

The key for Nelson will be to get the Dodgers collection of sluggers in the ballpark. If he misses middle or down, they'll get to him. If he keeps the ball at the top of the zone, and can land at least some of his off-speed and breaking pitches for strikes, he'll have a good game.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Lineup

(Check back later for lineup.)

Diamondbacks and Dodgers Bullpens

The D-backs got three solid innings of relief work Tuesday night, in which the bullpen gave up just one run (a solo homer by John Curtiss). Jalen Beeks, Brandyn Garcia, and Ryan Thompson shut it down from there. Only Curtiss threw more than 10 pitches and all of them had two days off prior.

Andrew Saalfrank is still nursing a sore shoulder and hasn't pitched since September 16.

Tanner Scott (4.91 ERA) blew his 10th save on Tuesday in a ninth inning that began with a hit-by-pitch and a walk. Alex Vesia also threw 18 pitches, although Blake Treinen (5.55 ERA) and Kirby Yates (5.23 ERA) are well-rested.

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