Digging into some comparable trades for Yusei Kikuchi

2023: Jack Flaherty Traded from Cardinals to Orioles

Return: INF Cesar Prieto (Orioles No. 16 prospect at the time), LHP Drew Rom (No. 18), RHP Zack Showalter (unranked)

Flaherty may find himself traded again this deadline, but last year he brought back a pretty solid package of mid-minors prospects from a great Orioles system. Prieto and Rom are now knocking down the door for the Cardinals in the upper minors/Majors while Showalter shot up after the deadline and now ranks out as a similar pitching prospect to Adam Kloffenstein, who Toronto sent to St. Louis last summer, too.

2023: Lucas Giolito Traded with RP Reynaldo Lopez from White Sox to Angels

Return: C Edgar Quero (No. 2), LHP Ky Bush (No. 3)

At first glance, this trade is probably the biggest outlier of the bunch. But it’s important to keep in mind that the Angels had a terrible farm system entering this deadline, were desperate to capitalize on the last few months of Shohei Ohtani, and also made this deal a few days before the actual deadline, when prices are higher.

Getting a two of any organization’s top-three prospects seems like a coup, but to better contextualize where Quero and Bush stand, they’re now Chicago’s No. 4 and No. 16 prospects. Those rankings are a far better indicator of the type of package Toronto could bring back for Kikuchi packaged with a reliever like Yimi Garcia.

2022: Jose Quintana Traded with RP Chris Stratton from Pirates to Cardinals

Return: 3B Malcom Nunez (No. 10), RHP Johan Oviedo (24-year-old MLB swingman)

I think this trade is probably the best comparison for what the Blue Jays would actually target in a Kikuchi (plus maybe Trevor Richards) deal. Both Toronto’s lefty and Quintana had similarly spotty track records before really getting things together in the seasons prior to their trade.

And, for a Blue Jays team that seems set on competing in 2025, bringing back an upper-minors prospect like Nunez and an MLB ready SP/RP (Oviedo ended up making 32 starts with a 4.31 ERA for the Pirates in 2023), the return package likely aligns with Toronto’s needs, too.

Kikuchi Trade Comp Takeaways

There are obviously a few ways Toronto can go about a Kikuchi deal, as the differing packages above show. Here are some of my biggest notes:

• Adding in Garcia or Richards seems like a real possibility, to increase the quality of return for a big deal instead of trading the relievers for lower-level prospects by themselves
• If the Jays go for a full prospect haul, two or three guys who would slide into Toronto’s pipeline rankings somewhere between No. 8 and No. 20 is the likely return
• More likely, the Blue Jays look to the Quintana deal as the best comparison, targeting a borderline top-10 prospect alongside an MLB ready arm to help the pitching depth in 2025

I’ve seen the Minnesota Twins throw around as a natural fit for Kikuchi — a team with an average farm system and a need for a mid-rotation arm. Taking the Quintana deal as a starting point, here’s a package I came up with:

Blue Jays send: SP Yusei Kikuchi

Twins send: OF Brandon Winokur (No. 10 prospect) + Kody Funderburk (AAA/MLB RP)