Dinger Tuesday — Home Run Parlay

Home Run #1: Austin Riley, ATL vs. Zac Gallen, ARI (+375)

Once thought of as a budding ace, Zac Gallen's currently experiencing the worst season of his career (5.54 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). At the center of his issues is the struggle to spot the four-seamer, which, at a 43% utilization rate, ~93 mph, and just a 96 Stuff+ rating, has already wound up in the bleachers five times this season. Currently running a two-game homerless stretch, I'm selling the rip (opposite of buying the dip) on a poor combination of year-to-date underlying metrics (40.8% Flyball, 45.3% Hard Hit, 9.9% Barrel, 10 HR).

Gallen will attempt to keep the ball in the yard against Austin Riley, who hasn't just crushed RHP over his last 50 PA (43.3% Flyball, 46.7% Pull, 56.7% Hard Hit, 13.3% Barrel, 2 HR) — he's had lots of success versus Gallen in particular (6-16; 2B, 3B, HR)

Home Run #2: Rob Refsnyder, BOS vs. Yusei Kikuchi, LAA (+575)

Anytime a lefty's on the bump against the Bo-Sox, they're bound to see Rob Refsnyder. The lefty-mashing specialist is in a great spot tonight, having crushed LHP all season (47 PA; .316 BA, 60.9% Hard Hit, 44.4% Hard Hit, 59.3% Pull, 17.4% Barrel, 3 HR). Refsnyder gets a chance to face L.A.'s Yusei Kikuchi, who's struggled to command his arsenal against righties, putting the ball in the air (42.9% Flyball) at a double-digit barrel rate (10.0% Barrel) to the tune of seven longballs this season.