Disadvantage, Yankees? Winners, losers if MLB plays shortened season

Empty/Neutral-site stadiums

Even when it finally becomes safe for team to play, it may not be feasible to have thousands of fans in attendance. Furthermore, some parts of the country have been hit harder than others, such as New York and Seattle. Since neutral-site baseball is better than none at all, MLB might not decide to wait until all 30 home ballparks have been cleared from quarantine.

Baseball is the only major sport in which the home team gets to determine the field dimensions. Accordingly, franchises build their rosters to suit their ballparks. The Yankees load up on lefties to take advantage of the short porch in right field, whereas the Red Sox tend to use more righties who benefit from the Green Monster. (For these same reasons, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams were nearly traded for each other in 1947.)

Winners: A's, Marlins, Rays 

In her essay for the 2020 Baseball Prospectus Annual, Clarissa Young described Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum as “replete with unpredictable plumbing, sparse attendance, and an unknown number of resident possums.” Meanwhile, the two Florida-based teams ranked last and second to last in MLB attendance. Combined, they’d only rank 19th. The A’s and Rays have been embroiled in long, public negotiations for new stadiums, whereas the Marlins, well, they’re just the Marlins. There is no excuse for them. 

Losers: Astros, Cubs, Rockies

These clubs combined to win 46 more games at home than they did on the road. Wrigley Field is called “The Friendly Confines” for good reason. The Rockies play in mile-high Denver, where the thin air makes for a much different baseball experience than any other MLB city. As for the Astros … they’re known to create their own artificial advantage.

29-man rosters

MLB probably will cram as many games into the calendar as possible (we’ll get into doubleheaders in the next section). This will give players -- particularly pitchers -- fewer off days to recover. Combined with a shortened preseason, this means more pitchers will be needed on the roster to counteract fatigue and prevent increased injury risk from overuse.

MLB was already set to increase roster sizes from 25 to 26 for 2020. Now, it could bump them up to 29 for this unique season. Under normal circumstances, teams were preparing for a 13/13 split between pitchers and position players. With 29 on a club, expect to see 16 pitchers. Of course, this will have an impact on the overall quality of pitching. Teams with depth and creativity in pitcher usage will have the upper hand.

Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Rays

Atlanta has taken the approach of, “Let’s just collect a bunch of good arms and see who sticks.” The rotation features a solid front four of Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Mike Folynewicz and Cole Hamels, with a cluster of prospects and post-prospects backing them up. They’ve amassed an estimable bullpen with shrewd acquisitions at last year’s trade deadline and in free agency. The Dodgers have such great rotation depth that Dustin May, Ross Stripling and Tony Gonsolin will begin the year in either the bullpen or minors. On nearly any other team, all three would be at least in the middle of the rotation. In recent years, the Rays pioneered several new pitching staff management techniques, including openers, followers, and one-time-through-the-order guys. They surely won’t be thrown off by a new pitching reality.

Losers: Angels, Nationals, Red Sox 

The Angels nearly traded for Stripling, who would’ve likely become their best starter, but reneged on the deal. Then Griffin Canning was lost to elbow issues, and now their lack of pitching will likely hold them back from playoff contention. The Nationals built their staff around the big three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. A compressed schedule could necessitate six-man rotations, meaning a lower percentage of innings thrown by these aces. The Red Sox traded David Price, let Rick Porcello walk away, and lost Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery. They simply lack the talent to make up for these losses, even under normal conditions.

Doubleheaders

In the old days, doubleheaders used to be a weekly norm. In 1943, the White Sox played 44 doubleheaders -- 57% of their total games played -- and still managed to finish 82-72. For good reasons, doubleheaders have mostly become a relic of the past (with the exception of rescheduled rainouts). MLB may revive them, though, to load up the calendar with regular-season games.

Hall of Fame shortstop Luke Appling played every game for those 1943 White Sox, winning a batting title, but we know considerably more about player fatigue these days. Even the best players need a day off from time to time, and regularly playing 18 innings in a day is too much to ask. Teams with more balanced rosters and strong benches will shine with a doubleheader-loaded schedule.

Winners: A's, Cardinals, Twins 

Positional versatility, a strong bench, and a deep lineup will benefit the A’s when they have to rotate out one of their starters. The Cardinals always seem to develop position players out of nowhere, and guys like Tommy Edman and Brad Miller can play just about anywhere. The Twins set an MLB record with 307 home runs last year. With a lineup full of cleanup hitters, they can afford to give them each ample rest without too much drop in production.

Losers: Brewers, Indians, Rangers

Teams with a "stars-and-scrubs" approach won’t fare as well. The Brewers’ lineup isn’t deep, and if Christian Yelich needs a day off, it becomes downright anemic. Cleveland will have similar problems when either Francisco Lindor or José Ramírez doesn’t play. The Rangers might be the worst defensive team in MLB, with positionless hitters Willie Calhoun and Nick Solak, aging veterans Shin-Soo Choo and Todd Frazier, and terrible pitch framers Robinson Chirinos and Isiah Kiner-Falefah behind the plate. If fatigue costs their defense any more range, they’ll be chasing a ton of baseballs all over their new ballpark.