Disappointing Blue Jays have tough decisions to make to get back to contention

The Blue Jays are not having the season they envisioned in 2024. The club played at a 90-win pace over the previous four years, making the playoffs in three of those seasons and falling just one game short in 2021. But here in 2024, they are 21-26, last in the East and ahead of just the Astros, Athletics, Angels and White Sox in the American League standings.

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them a 17.9% of getting into the postseason, but the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more bullish and still give the Jays a 30% shot. A sudden hot streak could certainly change those numbers in a hurry, but as the sand keeps falling through the hourglass, the Blue Jays will have to think about how they handle a summer where they are unexpectedly out of contention.

Right-hander Kevin Gausman didn’t mince his words when assessing the situation Tuesday, per Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun. 

“The reality is if we don’t play well, this team will not be together for much longer,” Gausman said. “It might make another year. It might make another year and a half. It might make a couple of months. That’s just the reality.”

There are various ways to play things when dealt a hand like that. Last year’s Cardinals, for instance, decided to only trade away impending free agents and keep the core intact for another shot at contention in 2024. They flipped impending free agents Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong to add some younger players to the system but kept most of the roster in place, then added to it by signing veterans like Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

If the Jays were to take that path, their impending free agents are Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi García, Daniel Vogelbach, Danny Jansen and Trevor Richards. Kikuchi had a 3.86 earned run average last year and is down to 2.64 this year, so he would certainly have interest. García is striking out 35.3% of batters faced this year and has a 0.47 ERA. Richards has a 2.91 ERA and 29.4% strikeout rate. Trading catchers is a bit tricky midseason because of the challenges of learning a new pitching staff, but Jansen hits enough that he could appeal to a club looking for a guy to serve as a designated hitter and occasional backup catcher. Kiermaier isn’t hitting much this year but could certainly make for a glove-first fourth outfielder on a contending club. Turner and Vogelbach aren’t having great years and would need to get hot to have some trade value.

Even with trading Kikuchi, the club could go into 2025 with a strong starting rotation to build around. Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Alek Manoah are still under contract or club control next year, as are Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko.

The larger and more difficult questions for the Jays will involve looking deeper into the future. They have a large number of players who are set to be free agents after 2025, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being the most notable, but the list also includes Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Chad Green, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson and Génesis Cabrera.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com recently explored the idea of Bichette and Guerrero being available and asked an anonymous executive about it.

“I don’t think they’re opposed to it,” the executive said of the Jays. “They’ve talked to teams about it. The asks were ridiculous, but I think they’re going to try to retool a lot, and using those guys to get pieces may be the way to do it.”

There’s nothing necessarily surprising in that. Front-office members discuss all kinds of trade scenarios that never come to fruition. Given where the Jays are in the standings, it’s logical that general manager Ross Atkins and his team would explore their options. It’s also sensible that they would set a massive asking price with still over two months until the deadline.

Whether they pull the trigger on a deal for Guerrero, Bichette or both will depend on various factors. The club’s record here in 2024 would obviously be one factor, as would the organization’s perspective on its chances at another shot at contention in 2025. Naturally, the kinds of offers being put on the table will also be significant, and it’s fair to wonder what kind of shape they would take right about now.

Bichette hit .299/.340/.487 in the past five seasons for a 127 wRC+ but is slashing just .226/.284/.327 here in 2024, which translates to a 77 wRC+. He has lowered his strikeout rate to 14.8%, which would be a career low by a significant margin, but he has just two home runs so far. His .257 batting average on balls in play is well below the .349 mark he carried into the year, but he’s also not squaring the ball up like before. His 4.2% barrel rate this year is less than half his career clip of 9.4%. His exit velocity and hard hit rates still look comparable to previous years, so rival clubs would undoubtedly have interest in acquiring Bichette and getting a bounce-back, but the Jays wouldn’t exactly be selling high if these kinds of numbers hold for the next few months.

Guerrero’s not in a hole like Bichette, as he’s slashing .279/.374/.385 for the year. He only has four home runs but is drawing walks at a 12.6% rate. His overall offensive production translates to a 123 wRC+. That’s nothing to sneeze at but it’s also not the elite production he showed back in 2021, when he hit 48 home runs and slashed .311/.401/.601, and it just barely cracks the top 10 among qualified first basemen in the league this year. Given the gap between his ceiling and his current performance, perhaps the offers from other clubs won’t match up with what the Jays are expecting.

There’s also the public relations question of whether the club wants to send out the two players who have been the collective faces of the franchise since before they even made it to the major leagues. There are some players putting up intriguing numbers in Triple-A Buffalo this year, with each of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Horwitz, Steward Berroa, Leo Jimenez, Will Robertson and Orelvis Martinez currently having a 112 wRC+ or higher in more than 100 plate appearances this year. Perhaps there’s an argument for opening up playing time for some of the guys in that group, but none of them have the same level of prospect pedigree nor the name recognition of Guerrero or Bichette, making it a questionable move from both a roster construction angle and a PR point of view.

Perhaps the Jays won’t get an offer that’s enticing enough to make them cross this threshold. Maybe they keep the gang together for another shot in 2025. Perhaps they go on a hot streak and make this all moot. After all, they are only four games back of a playoff spot at this moment.

But if they stay on the fringes of the race, they have some tricky decisions to make. Trading rentals would be the easy part if they stay behind the rest of the wild-card pack. Whether to move on to guys with extra control will be a trickier decision. It would likely reduce the club’s chances in 2025 but could be their best path to restocking their farm system, depending on what kind of offers they get. With so many players set to hit free agency either this year or next, there would surely be some temptation to infuse the system with young and controllable talent at this year’s deadline, if the opportunity to do so is there.

They would also free up a bit of payroll space in the process. Bichette is making $11M this year and will make $16.5M next year. Guerrero is making $19.9M this year and will be set for a raise via arbitration into the $25M-$30M range next year. The Jays could then pivot to the free-agent market, as they don’t have a massive amount on the long-term books. Only Gausman, Berríos, Rodríguez and George Springer are under contract past 2025. By 2027, Berríos is the only significant contract on the books. His deal only goes through 2028 and he can also opt out after 2026.

Taking all of that into account, it will be an important summer for the Blue Jays. In the months to come, the games on the field and the conversations taking place off of it will undoubtedly be playing a huge role in the future of the franchise.