Do the Diamondbacks Have Any Weaknesses?

The Diamondbacks have been blessed with a pair of two of the brightest stars in baseball in second baseman Ketel Marte and outfielder Corbin Carroll.

Marte is fresh off his second career All-Star campaign resulting in an NL MVP finalist finish this past season.

He is truly the catalyst of this D-backs squad and one of the top catalysts in all of baseball for that matter.

For all of this to come at the second base position as well, which is typically not a premium offensive position, is a huge plus for the Diamondbacks.

In 583 plate appearances last season, Marte slashed .292/.372/.560 with 36 HR and 95 RBI. This resulted in the 10th best wRC+ among all qualified players in baseball (151) and played a huge role in him posting MLB’s 10th best fWAR total of 6.3.

He also had some of the league’s best batted-ball data, finishing 10th in the league in hard-hit rate (96th percentile at 53.8%), sixth in average exit velocity (98th percentile at 94.0 mph) and ninth in max exit velocity (99th percentile at 117.0 mph), as per Baseball Savant.

While 2024 may’ve been Marte’s first All-Star nod since 2019, his success this season was nowhere near a fluke, as he’s strung together some great seasons in that span. In three of his last four campaigns, he posted a wRC+ above 125 and an OPS above .840.

Now, having this sort of production at an atypical position like second doesn’t mean the D-backs are lacking immense levels of talent at more premium offensive positions. Outfielder Corbin Carroll is a prime example of this.

The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year had a rough start to the campaign but looked more like the hitter he was expected to be at the start of the year down the stretch.

Carroll got himself back to above-average production with a .749 OPS and 107 wRC+ due to a second-half surge where he hit for a .919 OPS and 147 wRC+ with 17 of his 22 HR and 42 of his 74 RBI coming in the season’s latter months.

If we isolate his second half, there’s no questioning his superstardom, as he finished within the top 10 in fWAR (7th at 3.1), OPS (10th at .919) and HR (T-9th at 17), while sitting top 20 in wRC+ (T-18th at 147) and RBI (T-15th at 42).

So, should he continue to ride that momentum into the 2025 campaign, there’s no question he can be the type of player that left us all awestruck in his 2023 rookie season.

If you look back at World Series-winning rosters in recent years, there always seems to be at least a duo of top-tier superstars that anchor the lineup. We’ve established the D-backs currently have that duo in Marte and Carroll.

The last five World Series winners and their notable superstars.

That said, winning lineups need to be much deeper than just their world-class talent. There obviously needs to be adequate support in place surrounding the superstars, and the D-Backs have no shortage of supporting pieces either.

The Secondary Support Tier

When it comes to backing up their two superstars, the D-backs have plenty of perennial All-Star-caliber names in the next tier of talent.

Newly acquired first baseman Josh Naylor will do just fine offensively in replacing the run-producing hole that Christian Walker left.

The 27-year-old made his first career All-Star team in 2024, a season in which he belted 31 homers and drove in 108 runs with a 118 wRC+ and .776 OPS, while only striking out 16.6% of the time.

He’s now consistently been a 118 wRC+ guy or higher in the past three seasons, which is exactly what you ask for a top-of-the-order guy to be.

Eugenio Suárez is another name that showed out last season; a 153 wRC+ in the second half ensured he was an overall well-above-average 115 wRC+ player in 2024.

He’s been an elite run producer for the majority of his career, hitting 20+ HR and 70+ RBI every season since 2016, which again, is all you can ask for from a guy hitting behind two studs in Marte and Carroll.

With those two leading the charge in the second tier, we then turn to the rest of this lineup where every position is occupied by a quality big leaguer.

The Rest of the Lineup

With first, second and third base as well as one spot in the outfield accounted for, let’s break the rest of this lineup down position by position, as per FanGraphs RosterResource projections.

Behind the plate, Gabriel Moreno pairs above-average offense with great defense, while still riding that prospect pedigree that allows for continued dreams of future growth.

In 97 games this past season, he put up a .733 OPS with a 107 wRC+ while walking 11.7% of the time and striking out at just a 14.8% clip.

In terms of his defense, he boasted a 74th-percentile framing rate, a 79th-percentile caught stealing above-average rate and a 90th-percentile pop time.

The last infield spot is shortstop, which is arguably Arizona’s weakest position at the moment, as Geraldo Perdomo is projected to man the spot come Opening Day.

At the end of the day, though, Perdomo still managed a 101 wRC+ and an OPS slightly above the league-average mark in 2024.

Regardless of whether or not it was entirely warranted, we can’t discount the fact that he does have an All-Star selection under his belt, which is never a bad thing to say about your nine-hole hitter.

With Jordan Lawlar, Just Baseball’s No. 29 overall prospect, not far off from taking over at shortstop at the big league level, there’s definitely a lot to be optimistic about at the position.

Moving to the outfield now, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will most likely man left field.

While a 108 wRC+ and .757 OPS don’t exactly jump off the page, he’s a hitter who still managed to drive in 75 RBI last season.

With a solid 24 HR and 82 RBI in the desert in 2023, he’s certainly a useful run-producing piece in the middle of the lineup to help surround the “Big Four” of Marte, Carroll, Naylor and Suárez.

Rounding out the group, so long as the trade rumors don’t come to fruition, should be Jake McCarthy. Like the other players mentioned in this section, he isn’t the flashiest bat but certainly played his complementary role well in 2024.

With a 110 wRC+, .749 OPS and .285 AVG along with a good approach at the plate (he struck out just 15.8% of the time), he’s the type of guy that will keep the line moving more often than not.

Pair all this with good range in center, he posted 5 OAA in center field in 2024, and suddenly McCarthy holds even more value.

Finally, Arizona could very well have an underrated X-factor in their DH spot.

Though it was only 158 plate appearances, Pavin Smith looked stellar in 2024, doing seemingly everything to an above-average degree.

His .270/.348/.547 slash line as well as his 142 wRC+ paint a glowing picture of what he can bring to the table offensively.

Then there’s his 11.4% walk rate, as well as his under 20% K-rate (19.6%) to put the cherry on top of his offensive capabilities.

He hasn’t gotten the opportunity to really unleash himself in the past three years, as he’s failed to top 300 plate appearances in any season in that time span.

Yet, with both Pederson and Randal Grichuk out of the picture in 2025, the DH role looks to be all but his moving forward. Even if he looks more like a 120 wRC+ guy rather than a 142 wRC+ hitter, he would certainly be a huge plus for Arizona.

A Bench With Plenty of Intrigue

Now we move to the bench. Out of all the areas we’ll discuss on the D-backs active roster, it’s probably the weakest element.

However, “weakest” doesn’t mean “weakness,” as the bench in Arizona covers all the bases you’d want out of your backup group.

Starting with the catcher, there are a few ways the Diamondbacks could go here.

Jose Herrera is the current projected backup, according to RosterResource.

He’s not a good offensive piece by any means after posting a 70 wRC+ in 2024. However, with a catcher with as much potential as Moreno who’s in need of more than just 97 games of big league run in 2025, the backup role doesn’t need to be filled with the greatest name.

Herrera makes up for some of his offensive deficiencies with above-average defense behind the dish, as he posted both a plus frame rate and plus pop time in 2024.

If the D-backs do wish to prioritize offense though, Adrian Del Castillo could be an option coming off a great 25-game cameo in 2024.

In his 87 plate appearances last season, Del Castillo posted a .313/.368/.525 slash line with four homers, 19 RBI and a 146 wRC+.

His Triple-A numbers seem to back up his hitting prowess, as in 474 plate appearances in Reno the 25-year-old posted 26 HR and 75 RBI with a .312/.399/.603 slash line and a 144 wRC+.

He may strike out at a higher clip and isn’t quite the defender Herrera is, but he still could slot very nicely into the backup role in Arizona, unless they opt to give him more everyday reps in Triple-A in 2025, given his prospect pedigree.

Moving to the infield now, a lot of this is dependent on when the Diamondbacks plan to run with Lawlar at shortstop.

Despite battling injury most of last year, Lawlar was magnificent when he did hit the field, posting a .318/.417/.482 slash line with a 132 wRC+ in the upper minors.

His call-up would ultimately move Perdomo to the bench, which would be great for the bench, as Perdomo’s 101 wRC+ would play a lot better in more of a reserve role.

Looking beyond Lawlar, there are a few young options the D-backs could deploy to play decent roles in the infield mix for them in 2025.

Blaze Alexander wasn’t great in his first taste of the majors last season. However, you could do worse than an 88 wRC+ from a versatile infielder off the bench.

He does also have some decent minor league experience that could make him more of a projectable major league hitter, including both a 136 wRC+ in 2022 and a 116 wRC+ in 2023 at the Triple-A level.

Baserunning is another factor big league teams look for when rounding out their bench, and Alexander can provide that speed element. He had 84th-percentile sprint speed in 2024.

Tim Tawa is another name in the mix who’s currently projected to make the D-backs bench.

The soon-to-be 26-year-old was excellent in the upper minors this past season and really doesn’t seem to have any more to prove down there.

In 613 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2024, Tawa posted a .279/.349/.519 slash line with 31 HR, 90 RBI and a 133 wRC+.

On top of his solid bat, Tawa also provides a bit of a threat on the basepaths with 14 stolen bags in 2024.

He can also provide some positional versatility with time spent at all four infield spots and all three outfield spots in 2024.

Then there’s one of the more proven commodities on the bench, outfielder Alek Thomas.

While he’s not much of a contributor at all with the bat, after posting a wRC+ no higher than 71 in any of his three big league campaigns, he can hold his own both on the basepaths and in the field.

It’s not a glamourous bench by any means, but it checks all the boxes of what you could look for in your backups, especially when you have a starting lineup that’s as strong as it is in Arizona.

The D-Backs Could Have a Flawless Starting Rotation

Shifting gears to the mound, the starting rotation is the talk of the town in Arizona this winter, after the shocking blockbuster signing of former Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes.

Adding an arm like that to a rotation with as much pre-existing intrigue as the D-backs already had is a clear recipe for success.

They have top-end talent, solid veteran middle-of-the-rotation types, and a plethora of young depth in the mix at the bottom of the rotation, making this group an impressively deep entity.

The Top of the Rotation

When describing the pair of Cy Young-caliber arms atop this Diamondbacks rotation in Burnes and Zac Gallen, our Jack McMullen, co-host of the Just Baseball Show, put it best when he described the duo as “euphoric” in a tweet reacting to the Burnes news.

This is as formidable of a duo as we have in Major League Baseball.

Burnes is coming off yet another season where he absolutely dominated. In 194.1 innings across 32 starts with Baltimore last season, the 30-year-old threw to a 2.92 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and a .225 AVG against.

Since he first took on a starting role back in 2020, this season marked the fourth time in the last five seasons Burnes has thrown to the tune a sub-3.00 ERA and the fifth consecutive season he’s tossed a WHIP no higher than 1.10.

Looking league-wide, of all starters with at least 500.0 innings pitched since the start of 2020, Burnes sits second in the league in ERA (2.87), first in WHIP (1.02), third in both FIP (3.00) and SIERA (3.30), and sixth in K-rate (28.9%).

He’s an ace’s ace that immediately takes any rotation he’s in up a level.

Then there’s Zac Gallen, who could easily be an ace on most big league pitching staffs.

The 2023 NL Cy Young Award finalist is coming off yet another impressive season in 2024, where in 148.0 innings across 28 starts, the 29-year-old spun a 3.65 ERA…and that was a down year by his standards.

Gallen has now tossed a mid-3.00s or high-2.00s ERA with a greater than 25.0% strikeout rate in three straight seasons.

While he’s held his own atop the mound in Arizona for a while, doesn’t Gallen just look a lot better in the two-hole behind a name like Burnes?

The Middle of the Rotation

After the two top-tier arms to start off this rotation, the Diamondbacks feature a pair of solid veterans to anchor the middle of their staff in Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez.

Despite spending a majority of the season on the IL, Kelly put together yet another solid campaign in 2024 when he was able to grace the mound.

His 4.03 ERA and 1.17 WHIP marked the third consecutive season in which Kelly has posted an ERA between the mid-to-low-3.00s and low-4.00s with a sub-1.20 WHIP.

He limited the walks (77th percentile 6.3% walk rate) and kept hitters looking uneasy with an above-average chase rate (70th percentile 30.5%) last season as well.

This is really all you can ask of a middle-rotation arm, and Kelly delivered.

Rodríguez also spent time on the IL last year and wasn’t nearly as productive as Kelly was when he did hit the bump, with a 5.04 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

That being said, the D-backs signed him for a reason ahead of the 2024 campaign. When he’s healthy, he can be a difference maker in the middle of a big league staff.

In 2023 with Detroit, Rodríguez threw 152.2 innings to the tune of a 3.30 ERA, a 3.66 FIP, a 1.15 WHIP and a .225 AVG against.

If he can look like that kind of arm, or even the high-3.00s or low-4.00s ERA guy he was in his peak years in Boston, then he suddenly gives the Diamondbacks a favorable veteran quartet from spots one to four.

The Bottom of the Rotation

Then there’s a series of young projectable arms with some prospect pedigree that have a chance to make noise at the bottom of the rotation.

Brandon Pfaadt is the biggest name of this group and saw some decent year-to-year improvement from 2023 to 2024.

His ERA dropped from 5.72 to 4.71, and his WHIP fell from 1.41 to 1.24. He saw improvement in his underlying numbers, too, such as a hard-hit rate jump from the 16th to 42nd percentile and a K-rate jump to the 60th percentile from the 40th.

If he can continue to see marginal improvements, he could certainly be at least a mid-4.00s ERA guy with a lot to dream on. A lot of teams could appreciate having an arm like that in the lower half of their rotation.

Ryne Nelson is another young guy in the mix to make some starts this season.

Like Pfaadt, Nelson enjoyed himself a bit of a marginal breakout in 2024 as compared to 2023.

His ERA dropped 87 points from the mid-5.00s to the low-4.00s, and his WHIP fell 17 points from 1.42 to 1.25.

Looking at the underlying metrics, he most impressively jumped from the 65th percentile in BB% into the 89th percentile in 2024.

Then Arizona has a series of young organizational top prospect arms waiting in the wings for their shot in the big leagues, such as Yilber Diaz (ARZ No. 6 overall prospect), Yu-Min Lin (ARZ No. 14 overall prospect) and Cristian Mena (ARZ No. 15 overall prospect).

They have everything a rotation needs, and a surplus of talent at that. That’s also without mentioning struggling and disgruntled veteran Jordan Montgomery, who the D-backs seem all but ready to ship off elsewhere before the season starts.

A Bullpen Chock Full of Solid Arms

Last but certainly not least is the bullpen, which might be one of the more underappreciated units in all of baseball.

The Back End

The D-backs feature a trio of backend arms to anchor this bullpen that is as formidable as they come.

Justin Martinez leads the way as the presumptive closer following an incredible 2024 season, where he threw to a 2.48 ERA and 2.59 FIP and featured some of the nastiest underlying metrics in the league.

His two blistering 100+ mph fastballs, a sinker and four-seam, led to a 100th-percentile fastball velocity. He did not surrender hard contact, with 94th-percentile rankings in both hard-hit rate and AVG exit velocity, while also keeping the ball on the ground at a 97th-percentile rate. He also induced swing-and-miss with the best of them, with an 89th-percentile K-rate and a 96th-percentile whiff rate.

After having just eight saves to his name last season, his form in 2024 makes him all but poised to cover the ninth in Arizona in 2025, and he has all the skill to be amongst the league’s best while doing so.

Then in the primary set-up roles are A.J. Puk and Kevin Ginkel, both of whom are coming off seasons with 70+ innings pitched and low-3.00s ERAs.

Puk was a godsend for the Diamondbacks after a midseason trade last summer, posting a 1.32 ERA, a 1.63 FIP, a 0.73 WHIP and a .155 AVG against after the move from Miami.

The southpaw limited hard contact, with an 86th-percentile hard-hit rate and a 95th-percentile AVG exit velocity. He also found ways to fool opponents, posting a 90th-percentile strikeout rate, an 89th-percentile whiff rate and an 86th-percentile chase rate.

While maybe not to the same degree as Martinez and Puk, Ginkel held his own and found a way to dominate for the D-backs in the later innings.

The 30-year-old featured above-average strikeout metrics with a 75th-percentile K-rate, a 70th-percentile whiff rate and an 84th-percentile chase rate. He also managed to avoid issuing the free pass as his walk rate was one of the league’s best, placing him in the 92nd percentile.

Between these three, the D-backs should have no trouble shutting the door after a solid outing from one of their many starting options.

Beyond the Back End

If we look more towards the fifth to seventh inning options, there’s still plenty of quality to be had there, further expanding this bullpen.

Ryan Thompson did what he’s done for a majority of his career in 2024 and tossed a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP by inducing groundballs at an elite rate and avoiding issuing walks to opposing hitters.

Former All-Star Joe Mantiply managed a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP himself by inducing top-end chase rates while keeping the ball on the ground at an elite level.

Then there’s the newly acquired Seth Martinez, who scrapped his way to a 3.59 ERA in 52.2 innings in Houston last season. While he didn’t do anything particularly glamorously, he did cause right-handed hitters problems, as they only managed to hit .210 off of him.

With so much starting depth as well, it also wouldn’t be a shock for the D-backs to find ways to incorporate some of their young starters in need of big league run (or even deploy Jordan Montgomery, should they not find a trade for him) to adequately fill their long-relief role.

It’s a bullpen with immense upside that knows its role and can beat opponents in multiple different ways. They can blow you away with middle-inning guys like Martinez and Puk, or they could get crafty and manufacture outs with arms like Thompson or Mantiply.

This Diamondbacks Team Has No Real Weaknesses

Is this Diamondbacks squad as glaringly stacked as teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Philadelphia Phillies or the Atlanta Braves? No.

That being said though, they’re a team that is built to do everything to a well-above-average degree.

Their offense has just as much upside heading into 2025 as it did a year ago, with no holes from one to nine.

The lineup is supplemented by a bench group that gives them a mix of hitting, speed and defense, which is all you can ask for from your reserves.

The starting rotation has an excellent mix of elite talent at the top end, veteran innings eaters in the middle, and young talent getting opportunities at the bottom.

Then the bullpen has a clear back-end trio that can hold its own against anyone, along with a series of dynamic, intriguing options for the middle innings and a clear path for innings for some of that projectable young starting surplus in need of MLB run.

They may fly under the radar, but this D-backs group should not be trifled with, as they could be a prime dark horse candidate to do some real damage in 2025.