Do the Pirates Have a Paul Skenes Problem?

Over his last nine starts, the 24-year-old phenom owns an 0-6 record with a 5.36 ERA. Those numbers are shocking for the two-time All-Star. While his 6-8 record and 3.62 ERA through 18 starts this season are not disastrous, they are a massive regression from what the baseball world has grown accustomed to over the past two seasons.

However, the advanced metrics indicate that Skenes has also been somewhat unlucky. His 2.75 xERA is nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA. Furthermore, his 30.1 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate both rank among the best in baseball.

Sure, shoddy defense, like Skenes endured during his Opening Day start against the New York Mets, has inflated some of his numbers. However, unlike 2025, when a lack of run support contributed to his 10-10 record, Skenes has too often put the Pirates in an early hole this season.

Skenes owns a 5.23 ERA in the first inning this season. He has recorded 27 strikeouts and issued six walks. More troubling, he has allowed five home runs and hit two batters in the opening frame. In fact, his seven hit batters this season have already surpassed the six he hit in both 2024 and 2025.

This season, Pittsburgh's offense has scored the fourth-most runs in MLB with 446. But while the offensive production has increased behind Skenes, it has not translated into more success for the Pirates' ace.

Yet even with Skenes' struggles, the Pirates sit at 43-44 and just three games out of the final National League Wild Card spot.

But to have any realistic chance of ending their postseason drought for the first time since 2015, Pittsburgh will need Skenes to be one of baseball's most dominant pitchers again.

The Pirates will look to get back to .500 and salvage a series split with the Phillies on Thursday at 12:35 ET, with Jared Jones scheduled to take the mound.