Dodgers vs. Braves prediction, pick, odds for Monday, Sept. 16

Dodgers vs. Braves Predictions

• Dodgers-Braves picks: Max Fried Over 2.5 Runs Allowed (+105 | Play to -105)

My Dodgers vs. Braves best bet is on Max Fried Over 2.5 Runs Allowed, where I see value at +105. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Dodgers vs. Braves Odds

Monday, Sept. 16

7:20 p.m. ET

MLB Network

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Dodgers-Braves Projected Starting Pitchers

Cody Goggin’s Dodgers vs. Braves Preview

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: One of Baseball's Best Offenses

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will get the start for the Dodgers tonight. Yamamoto was a big offseason acquisition from Japan and has looked great so far in the majors, but he did suffer an injury setback this season. Yamamoto returned to the roster last week, pitching four innings and allowing no earned runs or walks, with eight strikeouts.

On the season, Yamamoto has a 2.77 ERA, 3.16 xERA, 2.77 xFIP and a 3.02 SIERA over 78 innings. The 26-year-old rookie has 92 strikeouts with a strikeout rate that ranks in the 89th percentile and a whiff rate that ranks in the 64th percentile among qualified pitchers.

Yamamoto has had elite command to this point. He has a Location+ of 105 on the year. His walk rate of 5.4% ranks in the 89th percentile this season. Yamamoto has also used this to limit hard contact, as he ranks in the 60th percentile in barrel rate allowed and 79th percentile in ground ball rate.

The Dodgers have had one of the best offenses in baseball this year. They rank second in wRC+, SLG, wOBA and ISO, and third in OBP. They have the 12th-lowest strikeout rate and the third-best walk rate in the league.The Dodgers rank in the top five in all Statcast contact quality metrics and have the lowest ground ball rate in the league.

Somehow, the Dodgers have been even better against left-handers this season than overall. They have a 119 wRC+ against lefties compared to 114 against right-handers. From this side of the plate, the Dodgers are third in wOBA, first in SLG, third in OBP and fourth in ISO.

Los Angeles’ offense has still been great as of late. They rank fourth in the league over the last 30 days with a wRC+ of 118 and are a top three offense by pretty much every metric over this time period.

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Ground Balls, Soft Contact

Taking the mound for the Braves tonight is left-hander Max Fried. The 30-year old veteran has a 3.46 ERA, 3.79 xERA and 3.38 xFIP through 153⅔ innings this season. Fried has a strikeout rate that ranks in the 48th percentile and a whiff rate that ranks in the 40th percentile. He also ranks in the 48th percentile in walk rate this season.

Where Fried excels is inducing ground balls and soft contact. Fried ranks in the 88th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 82nd percentile in hard hit rate allowed and 94th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He is also in the 96th percentile in ground ball rate this season.

Atlanta’s offense ranks 18th in wRC+ this season, as they have been slightly below average. They are 14th in wOBA, 12th in SLG, eighth in ISO and 19th in OBP. They struggle with plate discipline, ranking eighth in strikeout rate and 18th in walk rate.

The Braves hit the ball extremely hard, ranking first in hard hit rate, second in barrel rate and second in average exit velocity. They do have the 10th-lowest ground ball rate, which may help them against Yamamoto today as well.

Over the last 30 days, Atlanta’s offense has posted a wRC+ of 96, just a couple points down from its season average. The Braves have dramatically improved their plate discipline over this time, as they now have the eighth-best walk rate and 11th-lowest strikeout rate. Their contact quality metrics have dropped off slightly with these other improvements, but they are still top 10 by the Statcast batting metrics.

Dodgers vs. Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis

I’m unsure exactly how Yamamoto will look against this Braves’ offense and how deep into this game he may pitch. He’s been a solid pitcher and the Atlanta offense is a touch below average, but they do hit the ball well enough to give me some concerns even though I think he may have a decent outing.

I am a big Max Fried fan, but I don’t love this matchup for him. The Dodgers are one of the best teams in the league at hitting lefties. His bread and butter is avoiding hard contact and inducing ground balls, which is something that the Dodgers are one of the best in the league at avoiding. I think this is a bad matchup for Fried and I am looking to play against him.

My favorite bet on this game is Max Fried to allow over 2.5 runs at +105, as I believe the Dodgers will be able to get a few runs on the board against this lefty on Monday night.

Pick: Max Fried Over 2.5 Runs Allowed (+105 at DraftKings) | Bet to -105

Moneyline

The Braves are 42-32 straight up at home this season. Los Angeles is 39-34 straight up on the road, compared to 48-26 at home.

I won’t be taking a pick on the moneyline for this game due to the uncertainty around Yamamoto. If I were to, I’d take the Dodgers because I believe they are a good value at their current price and I am fading Fried as I mentioned above.

Run Line (Spread)

Los Angeles is 74-73 against the spread this season. They have been better ATS at home however, as they are 34-39 ATS on the road. The Braves have not been a good bet at home this year, going 32-42 ATS at Truist Park.

At +150, I do see some value on the Dodgers to cover 1.5 runs but will not be placing this myself, as I don’t think there is enough of an edge with Yamamoto still working back from injury.

Over/Under

Games in Truist Park have gone 48-23-3 to the under this season, as Braves games overall are 87-54-8 to the under. The Dodgers have been an over team, though, going 79-64-4 to the over, including 37-35-1 to the over on the road.

I would lean toward the over in this game. The Dodgers offense is among the best in the league and they feast against left-handed pitching, which they will get to see today. On the other side, Atlanta's offense hits the ball extremely hard and could make Yamamoto pay for any mistakes he makes in just his second start off the IL.

Dodgers-Braves Betting Trends

• 58% of the bets and 91% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
• 98% of the bets and 88% of the money are on the over.
• 86% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.

Dodgers Betting Trends

• The Dodgers have gone 37-35-1 to the over on the road this season.
• Los Angeles is 34-39 against the spread on the road.
• Los Angeles is 39-34 straight up on the road

Braves Betting Trends

• Games in Truist Park have gone 48-23-3 to the under this season.
• The Braves are 32-42 ATS at Truist Park.
• Atlanta is 42-32 straight up at home this season.

About the Author

Cody Goggin is a freelance contributor for Action Network. He specializes in handicapping the NFL, MLB and motorsports. Before joining Action in 2022, he worked for FTN and Student Union Sports.

Follow Cody Goggin @codygoggin on Twitter/X.