Dodgers vs. Phillies: NLDS Series Preview

Offense	Dodgers	Phillies
HR	241 (2nd)	212 (9th)
RBI	785 (2nd)	753 (6th)
AVG	.253 (6th)	.258 (2nd)
OBP	.328 (5th)	.328 (4th)
SLG	.440 (2nd)	.431 (4th)
OPS	.787 (2nd)	.759 (4th)
wRC+	113 (t2nd)	109 (t7th)
fWAR	28.7 (5th)	26.9 (t7th)

Pitching	Dodgers	Phillies
ERA	3.97 (17th)	3.79 (8th)
FIP	3.95 (8th)	3.71 (1st)
K%	24.7% (2md)	24.4% (3rd)
BB%	9.3% (28th)	7.2% (2nd)
fWAR	20.4 (2nd)	24.4 (1st)

Starting Pitching Matchups

*Not official at time of publication

Game 1: Shohei Ohtani vs. Christopher Sánchez

• Ohtani (LAD): 14 GS, 47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.90 FIP, 33% K%, 4.8% BB%, 1.9 pitching fWAR

• Sánchez (PHI): 32 GS, 202 IP, 2.50 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 26.3% K%, 5.5% BB%, 6.4 fWAR

You could not ask for a much better pitching matchup to start the series. The Dodgers were able to avoid throwing Ohtani against the Reds and now get to call on him in a more difficult matchup against the Phillies, who he held to no hits across five innings on the 16th of September.

The last time we saw Ohtani on the mound was on the 23rd, an outing in which he went six innings for the first time this season, allowing no runs and five hits with eight strikeouts. You know what to expect. The question will become, how deep can he pitch into this game? The longer layoff might help him push past seven innings if need be.

Sánchez was phenomenal all season and by far the biggest All-Star snub. He’s faced the Dodgers twice this year, once at home and once on the road, allowing four runs and two home runs in each start. He only allowed four or more runs four times this year, which should bring some matchup concern for the Phillies fans.

Game 2: Blake Snell vs. Jesús Luzardo

• Snell: 11 GS, 61.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 28.3% K%, 10.2% BB%, 1.9 fWAR

• Luzardo: 32 GS, 183.2 IP, 3.92 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 28.5% K%, 7.5% BB%, 5.3 fWAR

The extra day of rest before the series starts gives the Dodgers a few different options for how they will handle the rotation. Tyler Glasnow could go, but I’m leaning with Snell on five days’ rest. Snell looked fantastic against the Reds, going seven innings, allowing two runs and striking out nine.

The Phillies have hit lefties well this season (.745 OPS), but I think the Dodgers will lean on Snell’s swing-and-miss stuff and ride the hot hand. The last time Snell faced this lineup, just a few weeks back, he went seven innings of two-hit, 12-strikeout ball. I wouldn’t rock the boat.

The Phillies also have a choice to make when it comes to who starts Game 2, but Luzardo is entering the series on a heater. Over the last month of the regular season, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA while striking out 41 across 34.2 innings.

I love his changeup, which will help neutralize righty batters like Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith. I trust Luzardo against the tough lefties in the lineup, as he’s held lefties to only a .514 OPS this season.

Game 3: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Ranger Suárez

• Yamamoto (LAD): 30 GS, 173.2 IP, 2.49 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 29.4% K%, 8.6% BB%, 5.0 fWAR

• Suárez (PHI): 26 GS, 157.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 23.2% K%, 5.8% BB%, 4.0 fWAR

I’m going to stick with the set rotation, keeping Yamamoto in line for Game 3. No matter who wins Games 1 and 2, Game 3 is going to be pivotal, and I like the Dodgers’ chances with Yamamoto and his extensive pitch mix, especially after the Phillies deal with Snell’s breaking stuff from the left side the game prior.

I feel like Suárez is going to win or lose this game for the Phillies. We have seen him go through some difficult patches in the second half, and he did not get through five innings in either of his last two starts of the season.

After striking out 10 and 11 in back-to-back August starts, Suárez only struck out more than five in one of his final six starts, including a five-strikeout night against the Dodgers, when he allowed three runs. Which version of Suárez we get this night could be the deciding factor.

Game 4 (If Needed): Tyler Glasnow vs. Aaron Nola

• Glasnow (LAD): 18 GS, 90.1 IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 29% K%, 11.7% BB%, 1.6 fWAR

• Nola (PHI): 17 GS, 94.1 IP, 6.01 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 24% K%, 6.9% BB%, 0.9 fWAR

Here’s where the pitching matchups get even more difficult to predict, and we’ll need to see some game outcomes before having a better chance. However, I wanted to highlight each of these pitchers, as we could see them find their way into the rotation here.

I’m not sure how the Dodgers will use Glasnow (more on that later), but having a guy of his talent that can go in a Game 4 is a weapon. He boasts a true four-pitch mix and has confidence in every pitch, making it difficult for hitters to get comfortable or guess what’s coming. He’ll use any of his pitches in any moment, no matter the count.

Nola’s year has not gone as planned. Loud contact and home runs have elevated his ERA, but he has pitched (slightly) better than the 6.01 mark he has put up. I see the Phillies leaning into the veteran at some point, depending on how prior games go, and hoping his playoff experience can elevate his game.

Game 5 (If Needed): Shohei Ohtani vs. Christopher Sánchez

See Game 1 matchup for stats

If we reach a Game 5, I think both teams will go back to their first game starters. I don’t think the Dodgers will go with Kershaw in the rotation during this series, and the Phillies do not have enough trust in Walker Buehler, leading to both being skipped in games prior.

Key Storylines To Watch: Dodgers

How To Use Glasnow?

Before I get in too deep, I must say the Dodgers bullpen has been underwhelming. It was a concern entering the playoffs, and it is still a concern after two games. If the Reds were simply better, both of those comeback scares would have led to headlines and a third game.

Because of L.A.’s relief struggles, I wouldn’t mind deploying Glasnow out of the bullpen. A short start for one of the above names leading to a Glasnow appearance would still give the Dodgers a very good chance at winning, considering their offense and their ability to fight back.

If they do put him in the rotation, do they start him early in the series, allowing for Snell and/or Yamamoto to pitch in later games? I’d rather keep those two on the regular rest and wait and see where/how Glasnow is needed. If the Dodgers ‘pen doesn’t find an identity soon, he might need to be a high-leverage arm.

Bottom Third of the Order Production

We all want to focus on the stars in this NLDS matchup, and rightfully so, but the bottom third of the Dodgers lineup presents some concerns. Will Enrique Hernández continue to be a playoff performer the Dodgers can count on? Is Will Smith healthy enough to make an impact, or will Ben Rotvedt have to play more than L.A. would like?

Tommy Edman has had a few big moments in a Dodgers uniform and was key to their World Series run last season. He was only an 81 wRC+ hitter on the season, and I have always had my concerns about his bat. I don’t love the idea of Miguel Rojas potentially getting any playing time, either.

The Phillies are going to score some runs. The Dodgers will have to have their depth step up and be less reliant on the top third of the order. A five-game series will likely need more than just the stars to perform.

Roki Sasaki, the Bullpen Answer?

Sasaki’s hype grew and grew all offseason to a point that no rookie could really live up to. He struggled at times this year, went to the minors, and now has a chance to provide value out of the bullpen. He finished Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, pitching a perfect ninth inning, striking out two and looking great while doing so.

The Dodgers are desperate for high-leverage arms and should not be too picky about experience if Saski, or another young arm, shows signs of being an answer. Allowing him to focus on one inning instead of working through a lineup could be the simplification he needs.

Key Storylines to Watch: Phillies

How Much Do They Trust the Rotation?

Zack Wheeler’s injury completely changes the Phillies’ outlook. Not because the rest of the arms are bad, but because Wheeler is that good. With Wheeler out of the picture, the Phillies find themselves in a unique spot for a five-game series.

I think they trust Nola enough to give him a start, but his leash should be short. Buehler has pitched out of the bullpen in the playoffs before and likely will be relegated to that role again. As much as I like Suárez and Luzardo, less-than-ideal starts are not uncommon for either of them.

Philadelphia’s three best pitchers are all lefties. If the Dodgers are seeing lefties well, there’s really not much else the Phillies can do. Shortening the rotation and going lefty again might hurt, but it is their best option. Although, Taijuan Walker having a playoff moment of some sort would be hilarious and awesome.

Bryce Harper Needs To Heat Up

I know I am not breaking news here, but the Phillies need a better version of Harper. He’s the heart of this team and the middle of the order bat who needs to create runs in order for the Phillies’ offense to stay on schedule.

Over the past month, Harper has slashed .225/.343/.427 for a .770 OPS. The last two weeks of the regular season, he was at a .677 OPS. That sample size is small, but so are the opportunities in a five-game series. Drawing walks is great, and I am not advocating for Harper to swing at balls, but he has to make more impact with pitches he can hit.

Harrison Bader Continues To Be a Difference Maker

The Phillies have tried to solve their center field issues for years now. After Johan Rojas proved not to be the answer, all eyes turned toward big names for Dave Dombrowski to add in one of his signature moves. Instead, he added Bader, who has actually churned out big-time production.

Since joining the Phillies, Bader has slashed .305/.361/.463 with five home runs. His defense is great and should make a difference. In a series against a top-five offense that will put the ball in play, any out you can steal feels massive.

The Dodgers have a number of lefty arms in the bullpen, including one of the few they trust in Alex Vesia. Bader has always performed well against southpaws and could come up big against the Dodgers bullpen.

Prediction

Phillies in Five

I think the Dodgers’ rotation has the edge, but my gut is telling me the Phillies pull this out in five. The bullpens are going to make the difference in this series, and I have more faith in the Phillies holding a lead than I do the Dodgers. Philadelphia has two lefties I like that could be used situationally against Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, or Max Muncy.