Drake Baldwin winning ROY would net Braves an extra top draft pick

Braves rookie Drake Baldwin is on a tear that is almost nonsensical. Despite not playing every day, he’s hitting a ridiculous .452 with five home runs over his last 23 games, good for a 1.235 OPS. He’s been the club’s best player by a country mile, and if he didn’t have to share playing time with Sean Murphy, he would undoubtedly be a heavy favorite to become the third Braves player to take home the Rookie of the Year award since 2018 (Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II).

What the Braves do moving forward with Baldwin and Murphy has been a hot topic of discussion. What we do know is that Baldwin is not changing positions… for now. Alex Anthopoulos said as much in a recent interview on 680 The Fan. They like the pace that he’s at and don’t want to add anymore to his plate. However, over the last week or so, the split between the two catchers has become closer to 50/50, with Baldwin starting in five of the last eight games.

The Braves simply cannot keep him out of the lineup when he’s hitting like this, and while it might not be at the forefront of Brian Snitker‘s mind, there’s also a nice treat at the end of the road if Baldwin can win the Rookie of the Year award.

In 2022, the league created a Prospect Promotion Incentive to encourage organizations to get their most talented prospects to the league quicker and avoid manipulating service time.

“Before the PPI, teams keep their top prospects in the Minors for a few weeks to begin the season, rather than promote them on Opening Day, to benefit from the service time implications that triggered additional years of team control,” Joe Trezza writes for MLB.com.

“The PPI is intended to incentivize teams to bring those players north with them on Opening Day by hinging team benefits — an extra Draft pick — on individual player performance and awards.”

The most straightforward way for teams to earn this pick, which would be at the conclusion of the first round, is for a top 100 prospect that began the year on the Opening Day roster to go on and win Rookie of the Year. Drake Baldwin fits both categories. Now, he just needs to take home the Rookie of the Year award, and he’s currently the favorite to do so, according to DraftKings. 

NL Rookie of the Year Odds

• Drake Baldwin — +380
• AJ Smith-Shawver — +400
• Luisangel Acuña — +800
• Agustin Ramirez — +800
• Dylan Crews — +900

Really the only thing that might stop Drake Baldwin from winning the award is the Braves themselves. Obviously, playing time is an issue with Sean Murphy in the fold, and AJ Smith-Shawver is also having a helluva season, boasting a 2.33 ERA through his first seven starts.

Unfortunately, Smith-Shawver was not a consensus top 100 prospect entering the season, which is where this rule gets kind of stupid.

“Eligibility is based on the preseason rankings. Eligible prospects have to appear on at least two of the three Top 100 Prospect rankings released by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and ESPN. Those players must be rookie-eligible and have fewer than 60 days of prior MLB service,” Trezza continues.

Why should it matter what some numbnut at ESPN or MLB Pipeline had AJ Smith-Shawver ranked before the start of the season? They clearly were incorrect in their assessment if he goes on to win the Rookie of the Year award. There’s no reason the Braves shouldn’t also be rewarded with a PPI pick if that were to happen, but unfortunately, that is the rule.

If either Drake Baldwin or AJ Smith-Shawver takes home the award, it will be a tremendous achievement for the organization. However, there is a little extra incentive for the Braves if Baldwin does end up winning some hardware.