Evaluating the Orioles' struggling rotation

The Orioles remade their rotation in the offseason, but to the extent hoped for by Baltimore fans. Corbin Burnes departed in free agency, netting a compensatory draft pick, but the front office opted to go with a series of older veterans on one-year deals to round out the staff. Charlie Morton signed for $15MM. Longtime NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano landed a $13MM guarantee. Old friend Kyle Gibson signed late, inking a $5MM deal in late March. It was a big bet on in-house arms taking a step forward and on some older free agents fending off Father Time for another season.

That bet hasn’t paid off.

Baltimore starters have the worst earned run average in the majors, checking in at 6.11. Their combined 15.4% strikeout rate is also last in the majors, as is their 7.9% swinging-strike rate. No team’s rotation has allowed home runs at a higher rate than the Orioles’ 1.86 HR/9, and only two have yielded higher marks in terms of average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Sugano and Zach Eflin are the only two Orioles starters with an ERA under 6.00. Sugano’s 9.2% strikeout rate is the third-lowest among all starters with at least 10 innings, leading only Antonio Senzatela and Randy Vasquez. Eflin, at an uncharacteristic 11.8%, has the sixth-worst strikeout rate in that same set. He’s also on the injured list due to a mild lat strain. Grayson Rodriguez, the team’s best young starter, is currently out with a shoulder injury for which he recently sought a second opinion.

Currently, the O’s are trotting out a quartet of Sugano, Morton, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich. Morton, 41, has struggled more than any pitcher in baseball, yielding a 10.89 ERA with five homers in his 20 2/3 innings. Manager Brandon Hyde was asked about Morton today and wouldn’t commit to the veteran keeping his rotation spot. “I think anything’s on the table at this point, Hyde said, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. “We’re going to get through this series and then kind of see where we are.” Kremer, sitting on a 6.41 ERA, has also served up five homers in just 19 2/3 innings. Povich has been tagged for four homers in 18 1/3 innings and seen more than half of his opponents’ batted balls leave the bat with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph.

The Orioles drew plenty of criticism for their cautious offseason. They reportedly offered Burnes a four-year deal to stay, one that’s said to have come with a $45MM annual value, but a four-year term for a 30-year-old former Cy Young winner in free agency never seemed like it’d get the job done. The team seemed to place a heavy emphasis on sustaining long-term flexibility, which has been a theme under GM Mike Elias as he navigated his club’s lengthy rebuild.

Some of that lack of multi-year spending in past offseasons could be attributable both to the team’s rebuilding status and due to the now-former ownership group helmed by the Angelos family. There was significant in-fighting among the Angelos family over control of the franchise, and in any scenario where a team is up for sale, the current owners are going to be reluctant to commit to pricey, long-term commitments.

There was some hope that’d change under new owner David Rubenstein, who purchased the team last spring. But while the O’s have spent more both at the trade deadline and this past offseason, the commitments remained short term. Tyler O’Neill is the only free agent to sign a multi-year deal under Elias, but his contract lets him opt out after the current season. Eflin was controlled beyond 2024, but only for one additional season. Right or wrong, the perception exists that the Orioles are rather squeamish when it comes to longer-term spending.

Whether it was a deliberate calculation or mere happenstance that the O’s again went short-term in the rotation, the end result is a struggling group that runs the risk of undercutting a lineup full of excellent young hitters. There’s no firm indication as to when Rodriguez will be back. Eflin has been throwing on flat ground but has yet to work off a mound. He’ll presumably need a rehab assignment, too. A mid-May return seems like a best-case scenario. Right-handers Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish had UCL surgery last year and won’t be available until midseason. Albert Suarez was placed on the 15-day injured list after one appearance due to shoulder inflammation and has since been transferred to the 60-day IL.

There are some reinforcements coming for the Orioles, but none of it is likely to pitch at a front-of-the-rotation level. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that Gibson could join the big league club as soon as Friday. (Kubatko’s piece also contains candid, thoughtful and lengthy comments from Morton on his 2025 struggles, which readers are encouraged to check out in full.) Gibson has tossed 12 minor league innings and been effective in building up for the season, but the 37-year-old veteran is at best an innings-eating fourth starter at this point in his career.

Gibson isn’t the only arm on the mend. The Orioles announced this morning that left-hander Trevor Rogers will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A this week. Acquired last July in trade that sent Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to the Marlins, Rogers is a former top-10 pick, top prospect and Rookie of the Year candidate whose star has dimmed amid a lengthy series of injuries. He was rocked for 15 runs in 19 innings for the Orioles following the trade before being optioned to Triple-A and closing out the year with a 5.65 ERA in his final five minor league starts. He’s a possible fresh arm, which the team needs, but it’s hard to bank on him contributing quality innings. He’ll also probably need a rehab stint of some length, given that he’s been dealing with his current knee issue since January.

For all their pitching struggles, the Orioles sit at 9-12. Their -20 run differential suggests they may be fortunate to be “only” three games under .500, but they’ve kept themselves afloat. If they can stick around in contention while patching together the rotation, then further adding to the rotation will be a primary focus once the trade market opens more fully in the summer. Until then, they’ll likely have to rely on in-house arms and hope the farm yields an unexpectedly productive option. Righty Brandon Young has already made his debut, and it stands to reason that names like Kyle Brnovich, Cameron Weston and perhaps former Nationals Rule 5 pick Thaddeus Ward could get looks if the current struggles continue to mount.