Expectations for Ian Anderson as he recovers from Tommy John

Ian Anderson had one of the more remarkable starts to a big-league career that you’ll ever see.

In his first taste of professional ball, the then 22-year-old right-hander posted a 1.95 ERA in six starts during the regular season of the COVID shortened 2020 campaign. That performance earned him a shot as the #2 in the Braves rotation going into the postseason, and he dazzled, tossing 11.2 innings of shutout ball in his first two October starts. The Braves ultimately came up short against the Dodgers in the seventh game of the NLCS, but it was to no fault of Anderson, who recorded a 2.57 ERA over two starts in the series.

That postseason success is something Anderson will be known for in Atlanta among Braves fans forever, no matter how the rest of his career pans out. The next season, he would help lead the city to its first World Series in the four major sports since 1995, allowing just three earned runs in 17 postseason innings, including five no-hit innings in a pivotal Game 3 of the World Series against a potent Astros lineup.

At just 23-year-old, Anderson looked poised to become an integral piece of the Braves future for a long time, but 2022 had a different idea. His lack of a third offering behind his fastball and changeup began to catch up to him, leading to a 5.00 ERA and an eventual demotion to Gwinnett. Then, the injuries began to arise, culminating on April 11th of this year when it was announced that he would undergo Tommy John surgery.

Ian Anderson missed all of this season, but unlike Michael Soroka and Kyle Wright, he remains with the organization, and there’s hope he can once again be a reliable arm for the Braves in some capacity.

By mid-season, the expectation is for Anderson to be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. It may be wishful thinking to believe he’s ever going to replicate some of the postseason magic he has in the past, but TJ is far from a death sentence like it may have been in the past. Pitchers oftentimes come back stronger than ever, and it typically doesn’t come with lingering effects like we see with shoulder injuries and other arm problems. It’s more than possible that the surgery does Anderson a lot of good physically, and you can’t teach the kind of mental fortitude he’s put on display during his postseason success.

The Braves aren’t going into the season expecting Ian Anderson to be pitching meaningful innings in October. Much like Michael Soroka in previous seasons, whatever Anderson gives the team will be icing on the cake. However, I’m much more confident in Anderson working his way back, given the success rate of Tommy John surgery, than I ever was in Michael Soroka after everything he went through.