Expectations For Ken Giles in Impending Return With Mariners

Finally on the cusp of being activated from the injured list, Mariners right-handed reliever Ken Giles has travelled a long, rocky road to get to this moment.

Giles last pitched in a real major league game on September 15, 2020 and landed on the IL shortly thereafter with a right forearm strain that was later diagnosed as a torn ulnar collateral ligament. As a result, he was forced to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery a month later, ending any chances of him playing the following season.

This was especially devastating given the fact that Giles, having just turned 30 years old at the time, was entering free agency for the first time in his career after being non-tendered by the Blue Jays. Naturally, interest in him was limited, considering he would be unable to contribute in 2021 and there was no guarantee of what he would look like in 2022. 

But the Mariners took a chance on the veteran reliever, signing him to a two-year, $7 million contract with a 2023 club option for $9.5 million on February 18, 2021. Year one, which paid Giles a base salary of $1 million, allowed Seattle to monitor his rehab and work closely with him as he progressed. Now, year two is well underway and he still hasn't thrown a single regular-season pitch for the major league club, though this is expected to change soon.

Giles appeared in two games during Spring Training, completing 2.0 innings of work while allowing a run on two hits and a walk. He also struck out four batters during that stretch, but was quickly shut down from throwing after injuring the tendon in his right middle finger. 

Suffering some setbacks along the way, Giles finally began his rehab assignment on May 29 with an appearance in Triple-A Tacoma. But with the Rainiers leaving the state of Washington the very next day, he was transferred to High-A Everett in order to keep him local. 

There, Giles spun 2.1 innings over the course of three outings in six days and allowed three earned runs on six hits and a pair of walks before rejoining Tacoma in Salt Lake on Wednesday. He pitched that same night, but was shelled for a trio of solo home runs in two-thirds of an inning. 

That said, the numbers are not of major importance for Giles or the Mariners' evaluation of him right now. Such statistical woes tend to occur when a pitcher is working on things and trying not to overexert themselves. All that truly matters is the fact that he's been able to log pitches and make it through his five rehab appearances healthy and with no concerning regressions in his tools. 

"Ken's had a rough time on his rehab from a performance aspect, but his stuff has improved each time out," Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto assessed during his weekly appearance on 710 Seattle Sports. "I think yesterday he was up to 96 MPH and, you know, pitching 94 to 95. 

Dipoto believes the Mariners are close to seeing enough from Giles to give him the green light—so much so that a return could happen as soon as Friday night, when the team kicks off an 11-game homestand at T-Mobile Park. 

"I'd be surprised if we didn't see [Giles and fellow reliever Erik Swanson] return this homestand," Dipoto continued. "Whether that's at the front of it on Friday or a little later on has yet to be seen. But they're both very close to a return."

Both Giles and Swanson's return have the potential to give the Mariners a significant boost in a great area of need. Their bullpen currently ranks 26th in fWAR (0.1) and 20th in win probability added (-0.35), though it performed admirably towards the latter half of the team's recent 6-3 road trip. 

The unit, however, still lacks options, with Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo and—to an extent—Penn Murfee and Sergio Romo serving as the only relievers manager Scott Servais can call upon with some semblance of confidence lately. The rest has been a jumbled, by-committee mess that would be greatly sorted out with an injection of probability and track record. 

Coming off his specific ailments, Giles certainly doesn't tick off the "probability" box but he has the track record. When healthy, the 31-year old righty has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball at times. The Mariners, however, do not—and should not—expect him to be anywhere close to that.

Not right away, at least.

Patience is key when assessing a pitcher's road back from Tommy John surgery. If they ever manage to return to full strength, it typically takes a full three years removed from the procedure to do so. Giles is only 20 months into his recovery and is also rehabbing an injury to his throwing hand on top of that, so the likelihood he can become one of the Mariners' biggest pieces out of the bullpen this year is slim. 

But what Giles, as well as Swanson, could give Seattle is something it has desperately lacked for most of the 2022 campaign: a sturdy bridge to its high-leverage arms. Last year, that role was filled by JT Chargois and eventually Casey Sadler. But Chargois was dealt to the Rays in the trade that reeled in Castillo, and Sadler is out for the year after undergoing shoulder surgery this spring. 

Andrés Muñoz, Drew Steckenrider, Anthony Misiewicz and others have either struggled or outright failed to fill those duties. But perhaps Giles and his often lethal fastball-slider combo could be an ideal fit. 

At the very least, he's another option for the Mariners to comb through. His floor is pretty low, given his particular circumstances, but his arrival has the chance to be a game-changer for a unit critical to Seattle's success this season.