Fernando Tatis Jr. May Have Rediscovered His MVP Ceiling

One of the hottest starts in all of baseball this year has belonged to the NL West-leading San Diego Padres. And one of the hottest players on that team is a 26-year-old outfielder and early MVP candidate, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis Jr. was set to be one of the future stars in the league when he debuted back in 2019 at the age of 20. His first three seasons included two Silver Sluggers, an All-Star appearance, an NL home run title, and a pair of top four NL MVP finishes.

Then the ascent to superstardom was put on hold. First, he would end up missing the entire 2022 season with a wrist fracture followed by a PED suspension.

Then Tatis Jr. would return for a 2023 season that wasn’t bad for most players but was his worst offensive season to date. Things started looking up for 2024 before a stress reaction in his leg wiped out over two months of his season.

Now, things appear to be back on track in a big way. Tatis Jr. has started the season slashing .333/.406/.624, all of which would be career highs, in his first 24 games. His 2.0 bWAR leads the NL.

Tatis Jr. has always showed tons of talent but his performance to start the year has been on a whole new level. One might say it’s been one of the most valuable performances in the league so far.

All stats were taken prior to play on April 25th

Fernando Tatis Jr. is an Early MVP Candidate

What’s one way to ensure that more plate appearances result in positive outcomes? How about staying patient to help avoid the negative ones?

Not only is Tatis Jr. walking at one of the highest rates of his career (11.3%), he is striking out at the lowest rate of his career (15.1%) by almost a full seven percent. Those marks are at the 70th and 82nd percentiles in the league, respectively.

It should be no surprise, then, that he is swinging and missing less overall. His whiff rate of 26.4% may be in the lower half of the league, but it’s still a career-best as well.

As Tatis Jr. has missed fewer pitches, it has translated to more contact, particularly within the strike zone. His 86.2% in-zone contact rate is a career high by a full six percent. That places him inside the top 60 qualified hitters in baseball.

All that increased contact has also led to harder contact. Tatis Jr’s 19.2% barrel rate and 95.0 mph average exit velocity are his highest marks since before his lost 2022 season. Those two numbers are both in MLB’s 95th percentile or higher.

There is one slight area of concern. Even with all the extra base hits, Tatis Jr. is hitting a ton of balls right into the ground.

Tatis Jr’s 5.5 degree launch angle is currently the lowest of his career thus far. Naturally, his 52.6% ground ball rate is also the highest mark of his career by quite a bit. It’s not impossible to keep bashing with a ground ball rate that high, but it could eventually lead to regression.

Regardless, Tatis Jr. has been absolutely sizzling in his first 24 games of the season and it’s paying off in a big way for the Padres. It also has him playing at an MVP caliber once again.