Five bold Minnesota Twins predictions for the season's second half

With a successful All-Star week now in the rearview mirror, the Twins will kick off the "second half" of the season — really, there's about 40 percent of the campaign left — on Friday in Colorado. At 47-49, they certainly have work to do to get back in the heart of the playoff chase. But they also have the talent to do it.

Get ready for some reckless optimism as we bring you five bold Twins predictions for after the break. (Let's not revisit this if these go 0 for 5, which is the most likely outcome).

1. Buxton goes 30-30 and makes history

Byron Buxton finishing with the first 30-homer, 30-steal season in Twins history isn't actually that bold of a prediction, as long as he stays healthy. He currently has 21 homers and 17 steals, having played in 78 of the Twins' 96 games (roughly 81 percent). If he stays at 81 percent participation (meaning he plays in 54 of the Twins' final 66 games) and maintains his current per-game pace, he'd finish with 35 homers and 29 steals.

Our bold prediction is that not only does Buxton go 30-30, he also makes MLB history with the most stolen bases in a single season without ever being caught. Right now, Buxton is 17 for 17. The record belongs to Trea Turner, who was a perfect 30 for 30 in 2023. Buxton is running as fast as he did when he went 29 for 30 in 2017, and he's going to get to at least 31 steals without being thrown out once.

2. Joe Ryan does something Johan never did

Joe Ryan had a pretty spectacular first half for the Twins, culminating in his first career All-Star nod. He's going to keep it up the rest of the way and reach statistical benchmarks no Twins starting pitcher has hit in over 50 years.

Here's what Ryan needs to do: Finish with an ERA below 2.60 and at least 200 strikeouts. The last Twins pitcher to do that was Bert Blyleven in 1973. Yes, I know that very arbitrary number excludes Johan Santana's unbelievable 2004 season, when he had a 2.61 ERA and 265 Ks. But we're just having fun here. Ryan certainly isn't on the same level as Santana, who was arguably the best pitcher on the planet from 2004-06.

Ryan has a 2.72 ERA right now. He's on pace to reach 204 strikeouts. He'll have to be extremely sharp and avoid any blowup outings, but a sub-2.6 ERA with 200 Ks is within reach. That would garner him some AL Cy Young votes, even if he's a major longshot to surpass Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet in that race.

3. Zebby emerges as a top-3 Twins starter

I have a feeling the season of Zebby Matthews will be upon us when the Twins come back from the All-Star break. He dominated with nine strikeouts across four one-hit innings in a recent rehab assignment start for Triple-A St. Paul, and he looks ready to step into the rotation for the second half.

The 25-year-old Matthews has a 6.19 ERA in 56.2 MLB innings, but he's shown electric stuff in the minor leagues over the past couple years and in this year's spring training. He's finally about to put it all together in the big leagues and emerge as a top-three starter for the Twins alongside Ryan and Pablo Lopez (once he's healthy).

4. Royce hits 15 homers in the second half

Royce Lewis has been sidelined by two separate hamstring strains this season and has struggled when he's been on the field. Across 42 games, he's hit .216 with two home runs and a .583 OPS. Dating back to the end of last season, he's hit three home runs in his last 84 games, looking almost nothing like the electrifying home run machine he had been (when healthy) up to that point.

This can't keep going forever. He's too good. I've seen it with my own eyes. You don't just hit 36 home runs in your first 116 games (playoffs included) and then forget how to leave the yard.

Lewis is going to hit 15 homers in the Twins' final 66 games of the season, even if he only plays in 50 of them. This is a guy who, just last year, hit nine homers in a 15-game span after coming off the injured list. Lewis has been better at the plate lately, dating back to before his second IL stint of the year. He's hit a bunch of balls to the warning track or off the wall. His advanced metrics are solid. The dingers are about to start coming in bunches once again, beginning at Coors Field this weekend.

5. Twins reach the ALCS

Yes, I know the Twins are two games below .500 and four games back of a wild card spot. I know they've been maddeningly streaky and inconsistent. But what if they just get hot and stay hot after the break? The lineup could be loaded if Lewis, Correa, and Matt Wallner start to rake alongside Buxton, Willi Castro, and Kody Clemens. The starting rotation is about to get Matthews back (refer to bold prediction No. 3) and eventually Lopez, too. The bullpen literally leads all MLB bullpens in WAR, according to Fangraphs.

The Twins are about to start firing on all cylinders after the break. They're going to get hot over the rest of this month and convince the front office not to sell. Then they're going to stay hot. They'll get into the playoffs as a wild card team, beat the Red Sox in the first round, and then finally get over the Astros hump in the ALDS. That'll bring them to their first ALCS since 2002...where they'll lose to the Yankees, of course. We can't get TOO crazy here.

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