Five Bold Phillies Predictions As Opening Day Arrives

Opening Day has finally arrived, so what better time to make some 2026 Phillies predictions?

In no particular order ...

Phillies-Dodgers NLCS

The Phillies and Dodgers have the two best rosters in MLB and should finish with the top two records in the National League, barring a slew of injuries or catastrophes.

The prediction here is the teams meet again in the 2026 playoffs, this time a round later in the NLCS.

The Phillies have been tougher on the Dodgers than any team in baseball the last two seasons, going 9-3 in the regular season. Obviously, they lost three of four in the 2025 NLDS. The Phillies' three losses last postseason came by a total of four runs.

Who knows how a playoff rematch might play out? Injuries will be a factor, as will be the bullets left in the arms of each team's rotation. The Phillies don't fear the Dodgers, though. They have nearly as much starpower, even if they don't have limitless resources.

97 wins

It's tempting to want to skip ahead to October but it's important to enjoy the ride along the way, and this should be one entertaining Phillies regular season.

Excluding the shortened 2020 campaign, the Phils' win total has increased seven years in a row, from 66 to 80 to 81 to 82 to 87 to 90 to 95 to 96.

The prediction here is a 97-65 finish in 2026. No National League team can match the Phillies' rotation, which will give them an advantage in roughly 75% of games this season. The Phillies will be favored in nearly every start made by Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo and Zack Wheeler, and if Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter match up against opposing fours and fives after Wheeler returns, the Phils will have an edge in those games as well.

Given their overall talent level, the 13 games they'll play against the lowly Nationals and 13 more vs. a Marlins team that isn't much better, the Phillies should again reach the mid-90s in wins. With a lockdown closer from Opening Day in Jhoan Duran and a better bullpen on paper than they've had during this run of contention, it could be the core's best regular season yet.

Sanchez Cy Young

Sanchez was the NL Cy Young runner-up to Paul Skenes last season but could have easily won the award. In 202 innings, he delivered a 2.50 ERA with elite strikeout, walk and home run numbers, and the fourth-highest groundball rate in the majors. It was as close as it gets to a modern A-plus pitching season.

Save for Skenes, who is Sanchez' main Cy Young competition in 2026? The Dodgers are unlikely to push Yoshinobu Yamamoto to 190-200 innings after consecutive World Series runs and the expectation of another this year. The Braves tend to play it safe with Chris Sale, who is unlikely to reach 175 innings. Wheeler will miss about a month, which will hurt his chances even if he comes back as his dominant self.

Most of the top starting pitchers not on the Phillies currently reside in the American League: Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Hunter Brown, Jacob deGrom, Joe Ryan, George Kirby, Nate Eovaldi, Framber Valdez.

In the NL, it's Sanchez, Skenes, Logan Webb, Wheeler, Yamamoto, Sale, and then Luzardo might be the next-best starter.

It wouldn't be surprising if both Sanchez and Luzardo place in the top seven or even the top five of NL Cy Young voting this season.

Career year for one of the three

The three being Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott. Marsh and Stott had huge second halves last season but haven't pieced together six full months. Bohm started slowly, finished up with a .287 batting average but hit for little power. He's not going to give you 25 home runs but he can't hit 18 doubles again in 500-plus plate appearances.

The Phillies need big years out of this trio. If two of them can put together career years, the offense should thrive. If none of them do, things would be much more difficult and a midseason trade could prove necessary.

Bohm is not an ideal cleanup hitter. Stott or Marsh are not ideal five-hole hitters. But that is what it seems like the Phillies will start the season with.

For Bohm, a successful season would be hitting .280 or better with at least 35 doubles and doing his thing with runners in scoring position (.307 career).

For Stott, a successful season would be hitting closer to his .280 in 2023, with an on-base percentage in the .340 range rather than his .318 career mark. He has a good eye and should be able to hit for average. There's no reason Bryson Stott should own a .318 career OBP.

For Marsh, a successful season would be maintaining an opposite-field approach, staying selective at the plate and letting the rest take care of itself. He's had huge Aprils, huge finishes and hot halves. Now's the time to do it more consistently.

Bohm is a free agent after 2026; Stott and Marsh are set to hit the open market after 2027.

Nola bounces back

Last season was an all-around disaster for Nola, who missed half the year with injury but struggled before and after to the tune of a 6.01 ERA.

He looked so much sharper this spring than he did throughout 2025, with a crisper fastball that sat 92-93 mph and maxed out just below 95. Early last season, he sat 89-90.

Nola still has plenty of weapons to retire hitters three times in a game. He's always had one of baseball's best curveballs. He can freeze hitters from both sides with his two-seam fastball that has ridiculous horizontal movement at times. Early in his career, he was effective at placing his 94 mph four-seam fastball just above the strike zone. Every tick matters, even for the pitchers without big velocity.

The Phillies signed Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract but they no longer need him to be an ace. They have two in Wheeler and Sanchez, with another top-of-the-rotation arm in Luzardo. If Nola can give the Phils 20 quality starts out of 32, job well done. If he can finish with an ERA in the 3.90 ERA range, job well done.

The prediction here is that he bounces back and eliminates much of the fanbase's hysteria over his decline, allowing 80 earned runs in 190 innings for a more than serviceable 3.79 ERA.