Forecasting Trey Yesavage’s Workload for 2026

Let’s start here. The first eleven starts Yesavage made in 2025 where piggyback-style starts with another highly touted pitching prospect in the system in Gage Stanifer. That’s something the Blue Jays intend to do again to begin this year, as Yesavage will likely work in tandem with Lauer to start the year.

In the eleven starts Yesavage made with Stanifer backing him up, six of them were under five innings pitched, four of them were five innings flat, and just one got through the sixth. The unfortunate part of evaluating these innings is we don’t have exact pitch counts for the starts in High-A due to their being no Statcast in any of the ballparks.

Once Yesavage was promoted to Double-A New Hampshire, he no longer had Stanifer with him. His pitch counts rose in New Hampshire from what I could gather, but his efficiency decreased which led to shorter outings.

With that in mind, the Blue Jays are likely to be strategic with how they deploy the right-hander in the middle months once (knock on wood) Shane Bieber returns. There will likely be stretches where the Blue Jays skip Yesavage’s turn through the rotation and just have him throw bullpens on the side in a controlled environment.

There will be times early on in the year when Yesavage gets hooked from a game in the fourth inning while he’s absolutely shoving, and some portion of the Blue Jays fanbase will be all up and arms about John Schneider “over managing” again. Just remember this was always the plan going in and they’re not going to deviate from it, no matter the circumstance.

Why is that? Because the end goal is for Yesavage to be a full-throttle option for this team from September through the Postseason, much like he was in 2025. Having logged 139 innings this past season, a modest jump into the 160-inning range is likely the target for 2026, which, as mentioned, will require strategic maneuvering.

What Do the Projections Say?

The consensus seems to be that Yesavage lands in that 135-inning range, with Steamer being the most optimistic model and ZiPS being the most conservative.

The important caveat to remember is that these projections are only regular-season based; any potential postseason innings aren’t baked into the final total.

Knowing that information makes these projections more palatable, because if you factor in another potential 15-20 innings in October, that would push Yesavage’s total innings into the 155 range. That is exactly where the Blue Jays would like him to be in his official rookie campaign.

One thing the Blue Jays have down extremely well at the major-league level over the past few years is they keep their starters healthy. Yes, some of that has to do with the personnel they brought in, targeting rubber-arm, innings-munching starters, but they’ve also known when to taper down workloads.

Blue Jays fans should expect nothing different with how they handle Yesavage this season.

Final thoughts

I know sports fans are conditioned to be fully in the moment when it comes to their teams. Looking a few months ahead is not something people like to do, let alone a few years. That’s the job of the people running these franchises. They’re trained to think in three-to-five-year intervals. Imagine and plan for any scenario, good and bad.

This is the case when it comes to Trey Yesavage. I understand people are going to be frustrated when he’s inevitably pulled early from a game in which he’s dealing. It’s going to happen, and in that moment it stinks, but it’s in the best interest of all involved.

The Blue Jays want Trey Yesavage pitching in the big games — full throttle, no strings attached. For that to happen, they are going to have to reign him in for the first couple months. It’s going to be frustrating and annoying. But the potential payoff is a replay of what transpired in October of 2025, and every single Blue Jays fan on planet earth would sign up for that.