Former Atlanta Braves Prospect Struggling to Begin 2025

When the A's acquired Joey Estes from the Atlanta Braves in the Matt Olson trade, he was arguably the third-biggest piece in the deal, behind catcher Shea Langeliers and former top prospect Cristian Pache.

While Estes has shown flashes of what his future could be in his time in the big leagues, tossing a Maddux against the Los Angeles Angels last season, his 2025 is off to a rough start.

The obvious issue is the results, which include a 15.43 ERA across seven innings in two starts. He's given up 15 hits and walked six in that span, striking out five, and that has led to 12 earned runs crossing home plate.

Going a little deeper than that, his command just hasn't been there for him this season. In his outing against the Chicago Cubs in the debut of Sutter Health Park in Sacramento (an 18-3 loss), Estes could really only rely on his fastball, but he wasn't able to place it where he wanted it.

Estes was also dealing with a big dip in velocity in that game. He'd averaged 92.4 miles per hour on the heater in 2024, but it was sitting at 90.5 on that cold night in Sacramento. That velo bumped up a little on Sunday in Colorado, with his four-seamer averaging 91. That's a nice step up from where it was a week ago, but is still a big drop off of last year's numbers.

If Estes isn't able to command his pitches, then he's going to struggle. His stuff, according to Stuff+, is going to be below league average, but if he's able to spot his pitches, then he can have success. Without the location to help him, he's just serving up batting practice for big league hitters.

To be fair, he was the guinea pig at Sutter Health, and it was a chilly night, so there was no previous data on what to expect in terms of how the ballpark would play. Even Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs, two established veterans, struggled in their initial outings at the park against a hot Cubs team.

It also doesn't work in Estes' favor that his second start of the season came in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, Coors Field. While the parks may have an impact, it's the drop in velocity and the lack of command that could lead the A's to look for a change in the rotation.

One option for the A's to consider would be former New York Mets prospect J.T. Ginn, who is off to a terrific start in two Triple-A outings this season. Ginn made his MLB debut last season, and is more of a ground ball pitcher, while Estes gets his outs in the air.

While we're still unsure how Sutter Health will ultimately play, having a ground ball guy in there may be the move the A's make before long. Estes' next start is scheduled to come at home against the Mets, Ginn's former team. If the A's are looking to make a switch, bringing in Ginn for that start, against the organization that drafted him, could be the move they go with.

Jacob Lopez, who also pitched on Sunday in Las Vegas, could be another option the A's look to, given that he's already lined up with where Estes has been in the rotation and is also on the 40-man roster.

If a move is made, it shouldn't be because of the early season results, but instead the underlying factors. The A's should want to make sure he's at his best before sending him back out there, to set him up for success as he continues to develop.

It's also important that the A's are getting innings out of whomever is in that spot in the rotation. So far, he has gone four and then three innings in his first two outings. That'll eat up the bullpen if it continues, and this team is at the point where they need to be able to rely on guys in the rotation, if they're going to reach that next level as a team.