Framber Valdez: Arsenal Breakdown and Contract Projection

Sinker (94.3 mph)

The sinker is Valdez’s defining pitch and one of the most distinctive sinkers in MLB. On an induced-movement basis, it features 6.0 inches of vertical break and 16.0 inches of arm-side horizontal break, both above league average for left-handed pitchers. The heavy, late-tilting shape makes it extremely difficult to elevate.

While Valdez does allow a high hard-hit rate on the sinker, its shape and consistent low location turn a large share of that hard contact into groundballs, where damage is significantly reduced.

Curveball (79.9 mph)

Valdez’s curveball is a power breaker thrown around 79–80 mph with -14.8 inches of induced vertical break and 13.2 inches of induced glove-side horizontal break, both well above league norms.

Rather than just a soft, loopy curve, this is a firm breaking ball with true depth and sweep. It forms the ideal north-south and east-west complement to the sinker; hitters who gear their swings to handle the heavy arm-side action of the sinker are forced to adjust to a pitch that both drops more and moves sharply to the glove side.

This pitch is a primary bat-misser and chase generator below the zone.

Changeup (89.9 mph)

The changeup functions as a velocity and movement disruptor, tunneling convincingly off his hard stuff while showing 0.8 inches of induced vertical break and 14.7 inches of arm-side horizontal break.

Even though its horizontal movement is roughly average in relative terms, it pairs well with the sinker by mirroring arm speed and release while arriving slower. It’s less of a pure whiff pitch and more of a contact-management tool that produces weak, early contact when sequenced correctly.

Four-Seam Fastball (93.7 mph)

Valdez uses his four-seam fastball sparingly. With 8.3 inches of induced vertical break (well below average) and modest arm-side run, it does not possess the type of ride that plays consistently at the top of the zone. Instead, it serves as a change-of-look pitch to keep hitters from sitting entirely on sinkers and curves in similar release windows.

Slider (84.4 mph)

The slider is a taste-breaking offering with -2.7 inches of induced vertical break and 3.8 inches of glove-side horizontal break. It’s thrown hard enough to function more as a short, tilting breaker than a big sweeper.

Used in low volume, it primarily exists to give hitters a different speed and tilt, expanding his sequencing options without needing to lean further into horizontal shapes.

Arsenal Identity

Valdez’s arsenal is built around movement-driven contact suppression, especially on the ground:

• A heavy, elite-movement sinker that collapses barrels and drives extreme groundball rates
• A firm, high-movement curveball with above-average induced depth and sweep
• A tunneling changeup that manipulates timing in the fastball/sinker lane
• Occasional four-seamers and sliders to keep hitters off balance

He challenges hitters in the zone and will concede some hard contact, but because so much of that contact is driven into the dirt, the run prevention profile remains strong. In short, Valdez wins by pairing some of the most groundball-oriented shapes in baseball with consistent location and sequencing.

Free Agency Valuation

2025 Arsenal Statistics

Arsenal Score is a method for determining valuation based purely on shape and location. It is a weighted average of a pitcher’s Pitch+ scores with an innings multiplier based on how many innings they threw over the qualified minimum. A 100 Arsenal Score for a qualified starter equates to an AAV of $22 million. A 150 Arsenal Score equates to an AAV of $33 million.

Framber Valdez enters free agency as one of the most established groundball generators of the Statcast era and, on pure arsenal quality, profiles as one of the premier arms available in this year’s class.

His movement profile, durability, and postseason résumé place him in a rare tier of pitchers who can anchor a rotation, absorb innings, and maintain effectiveness across multiple pitch types independent of ballpark environment or defensive context.

At age 32, Valdez is older than several other top-market starters, and his season was not without complications. The mid-year incident in which he crossed up his catcher and appeared indifferent after hitting his own teammate with a 95 mph fastball drew significant scrutiny. While not directly tied to his on-field performance, teams will factor such concerns into risk assessments—particularly in the context of a long-term contract.

Even so, the underlying skills remain exceptional. Valdez’s arsenal is both environmentally agnostic and highly stable; his sinker and curveball generate predictable, repeatable movement profiles, and his ability to manage contact on the ground makes him less vulnerable to hitter-friendly parks or shifting defensive philosophies.

He has also demonstrated he can lead a postseason rotation. His run as the No. 1 starter on the 2022 World Series champion Astros provides a level of playoff credibility many free agent pitchers cannot match.

Valdez’s Arsenal Score projects him as a $28.1 million AAV pitcher, placing him squarely in the top tier of starting pitchers when evaluated through pitch quality, movement traits, and usage-weighted impact.

While age and perceived personality concerns may pull his market slightly below the absolute ceiling, his combination of reliability, innings volume, and elite results still justifies a nine-figure commitment.

A realistic contract projection for Valdez is:

• Five years, $140 million total value
• Front-loaded structure to maximize value during his age 32–34 seasons
• Possible incentives tied to innings or postseason performance

Among available free agents, Valdez stands out as one of the few pitchers whose expected value justifies a long-term, top-of-market investment as he enters his mid-30s.