Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick, Odds for Wednesday, July 2

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on July 2, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ARID.

It’ll be Landen Roupp on the mound for San Francisco, and he’ll oppose Arizona’s Merrill Kelly. The market has San Francisco as +110 underdogs and the total set at 8.5.

Find my MLB betting preview and Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.

• Giants vs Diamondbacks picks: Giants ML +110

My Giants vs Diamondbacks best bet is Giants moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Giants vs Diamondbacks Odds

Giants vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers

RHP Landen Roupp (SF)	Stat	RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI)
6-5	W-L	7-4
1.0	fWAR (FanGraphs)	1.9
3.43/4.07	ERA /xERA	3.49/3.93
3.72/4.04	FIP / xFIP	3.33/3.28
1.44	WHIP	1.07
11.1%	K-BB%	18.7%
45.9%	GB%	45.3%
97	Stuff+	91
106	Location+	104

John Feltman’s Giants vs Diamondbacks Preview

Roupp gets the ball tonight, and he’s had an inconsistent season in 2025. He enters tonight’s start with a 3.43 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, and is coming off a decent start against the Chicago White Sox.

The issue with Roupp has been his inability to limit walks and hard contact. He currently has a 10% walk rate and a .257 xBA allowed.

He does a decent job of generating missed bats despite having below-average velocity, and he limits hard contact for the most part.

It’s not the easiest matchup for Roupp tonight, but we must remember Arizona is without Josh Naylor and Corbin Carroll.

I have mixed feelings about Roupp tonight, but he can build off his last start and turn in a respectable performance here. If the Snakes were at full strength, I’d have more concern.

Offensively, the Giants will face Kelly, who’s having a solid campaign. Kelly’s numbers are much better than last season, and he’s suddenly become a much more dominant strikeout pitcher.

But I’m not entirely buying in quite yet. Kelly’s xERA is .50 higher than his actual ERA, and he still allows hard contact.

The Giants have seen Kelly a bunch in the past, batting .240 over 135 plate appearances. Willy Adames has mashed against him, hitting .364 with two home runs in 22 at-bats.

The Giants have struggled offensively on the road, but they’re much better against right-handers than southpaws.

It’s been a rough stretch for the Giants lately, but this is a good opportunity to buy low.

Arizona has a decent matchup tonight against Roupp, but its offense isn’t the same without Naylor or Carroll. Plenty of talent exists throughout the lineup, but I think the market is overvaluing this matchup too much.

I like the Diamondbacks’ offense when healthy, but without those two bats in the top of the order, it’s much easier to navigate against.

I think it’s time to pump the brakes on the Arizona offense for tonight’s game, especially after an eight-run performance.

Digging deeper into Kelly, you’ll see that the 36-year-old is due for negative regression. His strikeout, whiff and chase rates are impressive given how they’ve improved from last season, but opposing hitters are squaring up the ball against him.

He ranks well below league average in opposing exit velocity and extension, barrel and hard-hit rates. Kelly is getting the strikeouts, but those numbers may be inflated after taking a good look under the hood.

Because of that, there are too many warning signs of regression, and it’ll be tough for me to invest in the Diamondbacks tonight.

Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis

The Giants need a win to stop the bleeding, and I’m happy to fade Kelly in this spot.

I also think the market is overvaluing the Arizona lineup without two key sluggers, especially since this group looked lifeless last week against some of the worst pitching in the league.

This is more of a fade of Kelly and sell high on the Snakes, which makes the Giants — at plus money — a nice value pick for tonight’s slate.

Sharp money has already begun pouring in on the Giants, so I’d expect this number to tick down before first pitch.

Pick: Giants ML +110

Moneyline

I’m taking the Giants on the moneyline.

Run Line (Spread)

I don’t have a play on the run line.

Over/Under

I don’t have a play on the total, either.

Giants vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends