Giants vs. Orioles prediction, pick, odds for Tuesday, Sept. 17

D.J. James's Giants at Orioles Preview

San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Snell Throwing Well

Snell has a 3.52 ERA and a 2.76 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 87 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 99th percentile. Granted, he has only pitched in 18 games this year, but he has sharp peripherals. As usual, he is walking over 10% of the batters he faces, but his strikeout rate is an astounding 33%. He manufactures whiffs and chases at a high rate and even boasts an above average ground-ball rate.

The Giants can't hit righties, even if Suárez won't blow them away. The Giants have an 85 wRC+, a 6.9% walk rate and a 28.9% strikeout rate off of righties over the past month. That strikeout rate is putrid, but Suárez won't notch too many strikeouts.

The Giants’ bullpen has a 3.92 xFIP with a 23.9% strikeout rate and a 10.3% walk rate over the past month. They have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so even if Snell accrues pitches quickly, they have backup. Honestly, only walks will hurt San Francisco's pitching staff in this matchup because Baltimore isn't tearing the cover off of the ball at the moment.

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Suárez Should Limit Giants

Suárez has a 3.39 ERA and a 4.10 xERA this year. He has an 88.7 mph Average Exit Velocity and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 61st percentile. He can limit barrels, even if he only has an 18.8% strikeout rate. He had his toughest outing in some time against the Chicago White Sox, but other than that, he's been solid since the beginning of August.

The Orioles have an 81 wRC+, an 8% walk rate and a 22.4% strikeout rate against lefties in the past month. Sure, the walk rate is somewhat encouraging against Snell and the Giants’ bullpen, but the O’s only have four active bats (with more than 10 plate appearance) with an xwOBA over .320 against lefties in the past month. The majority of this lineup will likely struggle against Snell, which could allow him to pitch deeper than usual.

The Baltimore bullpen has a 3.34 xFIP, a 27.5% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate in the past month. The Orioles have four active arms with an xFIP under 4.00, which should be more than enough behind Suárez.

Giants vs. Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis

Both starters should have decent performances. Neither of these teams is hitting well and Baltimore isn't necessarily a hitter’s park (15th in Statcast’s park factor). Look for the under to hit in this game as offense should be at a premium. Play the under from 7.5 down to 7.

Pick: Under 7.5 | Play to 7

Moneyline

I'm going to pass on the moneyline.

Run Line (Spread)

I'm not going to bet the Giants vs. Orioles run line.

Over/Under

I'm betting the Giants vs. Orioles over/under and would play it down to 7.

Giants-Orioles Betting Trends

Giants Betting Trends

• Giants are 33-39 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Giants' last 5 games
• Giants are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread

Orioles Betting Trends

• Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Orioles' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Orioles' 75 last games at home

About the Author

D.J. contributes to both the MLB and NCAA Basketball teams. He specializes in providing betting advice on games and futures. He started betting in 2016 and works full-time as an Analytics Consultant. He began his career in underwriting and a few years in began learning to code on his own. Afterwards, he went on to Graduate School to major in Analytics and transitioned to working as a Data Analyst and Analytics Consultant.

Follow D.J. James @cwsdjt on Twitter/X.