Yardbarker
x
Good-bye! Today's MLB Home Run Calls
© Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

Everyone knows bettors dig the longball — so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting.

Homers continue trending downward leaguewide, so finding the perfect spot's more important than ever. Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on who's going yard today. You asked for more Home Run calls, so I responded!

At this point in the season, we've established our basic foundation for sniffing out longballs. Identify the pitchers working up in the zone with limited stuff against hitters that lift and pull batted balls in above-average contextual environments.

Here we go...

Home Run Targets (min 2 of 3): +42% Flyball, +40% Hard Hit Allowed, or +1.8 HR/9

  • SD Nick Pivetta — 91.0 IP, 48.5% FB, 40.3% Hard Hit, 1.1 HR/9 vs. PHI
  • DET Jack Flaherty — 84.1 IP, 46.3% FB, 43.7% Hard Hit, 1.7 HR/9 vs. WSH
  • ATL Didier Fuentes — 8.1 IP, 44.1% FB, 52.9% Hard Hit, 3.2 HR/9 vs. LAA
  • KC Michael Lorenzen — 88.0 IP, 43.2% FB, 41.0% Hard Hit, 1.6 HR/9 vs. SEA
  • CIN Brady Singer — 85.2 IP, 42.4% FB, 44.6% Hard Hit, 1.1 HR/9 vs. BOS

(For transparency's sake, I tweak handedness splits to adjust for plate appearance sample size)

Opposing Hitters with +60% Flyball/Line Drive (FBLD), +40% Hard Hit, +10% Air-Pull (min 20 PA)

  • James Wood, WAS vs. RHP — 43 PA; 67% FBLD, 50% Hard Hit, 11% Air-Pull, 3 HR
  • Mike Trout, LAA vs. RHP — 28 PA; 81% FBLD, 45% Hard Hit, 11% Air-Pull, 1 HR
  • Dominic Canzone, SEA vs RHP — 27 PA; 62% FBLD, 50% Hard Hit, 21% Air-Pull, 4 HR
  • Cal Raleigh, SEA vs RHP — 26 PA; 65% FBLD, 47% Hard Hit, 18% Air-Pull, 0 HR
  • Jarren Duran, BOS vs RHP — 40 PA; 63% FBLD, 45% Hard Hit, 11% Air-Pull, 0 HR

It bears repeating — you cannot understate the importance of hitters that pull elevated batted ball events when tracking homers (If you noticed, today's Air-Pull numbers come in a little lower than usual)

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Weather's warming up bigtime and we got flyball pitchers on the bump... the perfect recipe for longballs - GOOD LUCK!

TODAY'S ACTION:

Not in love with the odds on today's results. The best way to sustain in longshot markets is to split a small risk where one ding-dong means a profitable venture for the day. Since today's results don't really fit my executable template, we have two choices. Either drop back to punt until tomorrow, or put $1 on a monster (+96327) hit....

  1. James Wood, WAS (+330)
  2. Mike Trout, LAA (+245)
  3. Dominic Canzone, SEA (+400)
  4. Cal Raleigh, SEA (+225)
  5. Jarren Duran, BOS (+400)

WORD TO THE WISE: NEVER WAGER ONE CENT MORE ON HOME RUNS THAN YOU AFFORD TO LIGHT ON FIRE!

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

Don't be shy — DM me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I'll hook you up with a free trial.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!