Green: A Trade Deadline Linchpin for the Toronto Blue Jays?

In my previous article, The Toronto Blue Jays Season So Far: The Relievers, I opined that the Blue Jays’ bullpen has performed well this season. I also noted that Toronto has three areas to address, internally or externally. One of those areas is the need for an additional, good high-velocity reliever. One possibility is Chad Green.

Green

Let’s talk about Green. He signed as a free agent with Toronto on January 30, 2023. Green, who underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2022, has yet to pitch for the Blue Jays this season. However, according to many reports, his rehabilitation has gone well, and he could be ready to join Toronto’s bullpen sometime in July.

Before his injury, Green posted some impressive stats during 2020-2022. In 124 2/3 innings, he generated a 3.02 xERA, 30.8 K% and a 6.3 BB%. His OPS and xOPS against were 0.601 and 0.621, noticeably better than the American League Average Reliever’s 0.697 and 0.695, respectively. Also, concerning his pitch velocity, Green’s fastball velocity ranked in the 85^th percentile in 2021. A word of caution: Green surrendered extra-base hits at a higher rate than the average reliever: his ISO was 0.172, higher than the 0.150 league average. His HR/9 was 1.45, higher than the 1.08 league average.

Green & the Trade Deadline

Will Green return to form this season? If the answer is yes, Toronto will likely make adding a high-quality reliever less of a priority. However, if Green is not close to the 2020-2022 version, the Blue Jays should add a Green-like reliever (“New Reliever”). Also, Toronto may want to acquire another bullpen arm to complement Green or the New Reliever. However, the second bullpen arm need not be an elite reliever.

Time for a reality check. We, as outsiders, do not currently have enough information to forecast Green’s 2023 performance reasonably. Toronto’s Management will gather more information concerning Green as the trade deadline approaches. However, as is the case in all player decisions, Management will not have certainty regarding Green’s future performance level. It is a matter of how confident Management is when they make their Green decision.

Suppose Management confidently forecasts Green’s 2023 performance level before the trade deadline. On that basis, I offer two trade-deadline scenarios to consider:

• Scenario 1 – Green is Green
• Scenario 2 – Green is not Green (or reasonably close to the 2020-2022 version)

Furthermore, each scenario has a subset:

• (a) Hyun Jin Ryu returns as a cromulent-or-better starter, and the Blue Jays use a six-man rotation
• (b) Ryu is unable to fill the noted starter role, and Toronto utilizes a five-man rotation

Trade Deadline Moves

In my opinion, Green is the linchpin for Toronto’s trade-deadline plans. If Green is Green, Atkins & Co. can lower their sights on the quality of a reliever outside the organization. It is also possible that Management concludes that Green is the only bullpen change needed. Furthermore,  Management could then focus on adding a power bat that excels versus left-handed pitchers.

At the All-Star break, Toronto’s hitters have a 96 wRC+ against lefties. Moreover, the Blue Jays’ lefthanded batters have posted a 61 wRC+ versus lefthanded pitchers. JFtC’s Shaun Doyle addressed Toronto’s inability to excel versus lefthanded hurlers in his article, Blue Jays Lefty Bats Not Alright. I encourage readers to seek out Shaun’s piece.

Toronto may have to choose between a high-leverage reliever and a lefty-mashing power bat if Green is not Green. Alternatively, Management may address both needs but acquire lesser players or use more resources to obtain New Reliever and the lefty-pounding bat. Also, in addition to the noted bat, as I stated earlier, Toronto may further bolster the bullpen even if Green is Green or New Reliever is acquired. Phew, that’s many options!

Therefore, in either Scenario 1 or 2, Management’s assessment of Green can affect the number and scope of trade deadline transactions.

I will now focus on bullpen trade targets for the remainder of this article. Accordingly, the analysis is based on the following assumptions:

• As of July 10, the likely sellers are teams that are not within 6.5 games of either the Division lead or a Wild-Card slot.
• Those teams are the Athletics, Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, Pirates, Rockies and White Sox.
• Management’s plan provides the flexibility to use four starters during the League Championship or World Series.
• Ross Atkins et al. will be reluctant to expose pitchers to the waiver list. Accordingly, Management will be unwilling to drop Mitch White from the 26-man roster because he has no waiver options.

Additional Items

There are three additional items to note.

1. My list of sellers is preliminary. There will very likely be more sellers as the trade deadline nears.
2. I used Baseball Trade Values (“BTV”) as my trade value source. BTV is not gospel but an objective source of player value. Accordingly, one should not consider a player’s trade value (expressed in millions of USD) absolute. BTV’s trade value provides a sense of relative value between two players.
3. I screened reliever trade targets by selecting relievers with at least 75 batters faced this season and an xERA better than the 60^th

Onto the tables!

The Data

The data can be found in the following tables:

• Table 1 – Blue Jays’ Relievers Trade Values
• Table 2 – Blue Jays’ Bullpen & Rotation Scenarios
• Table 3 – Trade Value of Reliever Trade Targets
• Table 4 – Blue Jays’ Hypothetical Trade Deadline Packages
• Table 5 – xERA Data of Selected Bullpen Targets
• Table 6 – Additional Data of Preferred Targets

Observations

Table 1

Yimi Garcia, Green, Trevor Richards and White are without options and would have to be placed on waivers before sending them to Buffalo. Accordingly, if a reliever or relievers are added to the 26-man roster,  Adam Cimber, Bowden Francis, and Nate Pearson are likely on the list of candidates for demotion to Buffalo.

Furthermore, if Management adds Green and Ryu to the 26-man roster, space will also be needed on the 40-man. Therefore, the potential candidates to be dropped from the 40-man roster includes names such as Jay Jackson, Thomas Hatch and Trent Thornton.

Table 2

Various media reports have suggested that Management is open to a six-man rotation if Ryu is expected to contribute as a starter.  An advantage to using a six-man rotation is providing starters with additional rest between starts. However, until the rosters expand in September, a six-man rotation would mean a seven-man bullpen. Hence, if Toronto does not want to expose White to waivers, Pearson is probably Buffalo-bound until after August. Alternatively, White could be traded to create openings on the 26 and 40-man rosters. Consequently, Pearson could remain with the big club in August if White is traded.

Tables 3 and 4

Ryan Helsley (arm), Joe Kelly (elbow) and Brent Suter (oblique) are currently on the 15-Day Injured List. Also, I omitted Liam Hendriks from the tables because he has pitched just five innings this season due to his battle with cancer. Furthermore, Hendriks has been on the 15-Day IL since June 11 with an elbow ailment.

Table 4 shows the varying trade values of the listed relievers, from a high of Bednar’s USD 40.8 million to Ottavino’s minus USD 6.4 million. Furthermore, the reader can see the prospect-capital cost to acquire each trade target.

There are two things to bear in mind. First, the trade packages include a seller’s premium to reflect that trade prices tend to rise at the deadline.

The second point to acknowledge is that the various Blue Jay prospects included in a hypothetical trade package for a given reliever are not a trade proposal. For example, I am not suggesting that Toronto trades Ricky Tiedemann, Addison Barger and Hayden Juenger for David Bednar. I am pointing out that acquiring Bednar will cost dearly in prospect capital. Of course, any trade could include a player from the current roster, such as White.

Table 5

I used percentiles to rank reliever xERAs. For points of reference, the xERA-percentile breakpoints are as follows:

• 91^st – 2.62
• 81^st – 2.99
• 71^st – 3.18
• 61^st – 3.44
• 50^th – 3.77

Table 5 shows that the xERA of some pitchers can vary widely by batter handedness. For example, Dauri Moreta’s xERA versus right-handed hitters is 93^rd percentile but 25^th when facing lefties. On the other end of the spectrum, Adbert Alzolay’s xERA delta is two percentile points: 92^nd against righties and 94^th versus left-handed batters.

Suppose the Blue Jays decided to acquire a reliever at the trade deadline. I prefer a bullpen arm that is relatively effective against right-handed and left-handed hitters. Hence, from Table 5, I arbitrarily selected the nine relievers with the smallest xERA splits.

Table 6

Julian Merryweather, hello, old friend. Merryweather has performed well for the Cubs. Although his BB% is in the 16^th percentile, his K%-BB% is 71^st. Also, his ISO and xISO are in the 94^th and 82^nd percentile, which would be a welcomed addition to a bullpen which has yielded extra-base hits at a high rate. Lastly, the percentile-rankings difference between Merryweather’s OPS and xOPS can be explained mainly by two factors. First, his BABIP is a lofty 0.367 (7^th percentile, wherein the 100^th percentile is the lowest). Also, Merryweather’s defensive support has been below average (minus 2 OAA).

Another reliever who is similar to Merryweather is Jordan Hicks. If you want strikeouts and walks, Hicks is your guy. Like Merryweather, the BABIP Overlords have negatively affected Hicks’ performance: his BABIP ranks in the 9^th percentile. Another similarity with Merryweather is Hick’s prowess at not giving up extra-base hits.

Well, What’s the Deal?

I am reluctant to use a lot of player capital to acquire a reliever. My reasons are as follows:

• All relievers, including the pricier ones like Bednar, come with elevated performance risk. Relievers are notorious for season-to-season performance variances.
• For example, Raisel Iglesias posted xERAs of 2.48 and 2.45 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Those metrics likely earned him a four-year, USD 58 million contract. Since then, he has posted xERAs of 3.10 (69^th percentile) and 3.47 (58^th percentile) in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Good, but not great.
• In March 2023, MLB’s farm system rankings placed Toronto in the #20 slot. Therefore, the Blue Jays should be judicious when they spend prospect capital. A Bednar acquisition, for example, would significantly reduce Toronto’s pool of high-quality prospects.
• Toronto’s bullpen is very good. Hence, a big-name reliever, while nice to have, is not necessary.

Therefore, I would opt for less-costly relievers. If Green is Green, I would add a Merryweather or a Hicks. If Management forecasts that Green will not be Green in 2023, I propose that Toronto adds David Robertson and one of Merryweather or Hicks.

Small sample size warning! Compared to Robertson, Hicks, and especially Merryweather, have fewer career innings under their belt. Robertson has posted a 3.10 xERA in 385 innings, whereas Hicks’ 3.44 xERA covers 214 innings. Merryweather’s 3.83 xERA reflects his work in 90 innings. Hence, I am more confident that Robertson and Hicks can maintain their 2023 performance levels than Merryweather. Therefore, I would rate Hicks ahead of Merryweather as the second bullpen addition.

There is another possibility. Suppose Toronto’s Management concludes that Green, while not quite 2020-2022 Green yet, will be a solid reliever for the balance of 2023. In this case, Management may want to acquire Robertson and have Green serve in the Merryweather/Hicks role.

In my proposals, the player-capital price needed to acquire the above players is manageable. The prospect depletion would not be significant. Also, Management would have enough prospects or players, for example, White, to acquire a bat to mash left-handed pitchers.

The Last Word

Toronto has made great strides in enhancing the quality of its bullpen. Concerning the upcoming trade deadline, Green is the linchpin for Blue Jays’ plans. If Management determines Green will be Green, then a single external bullpen addition would make sense. Even if Atkins & Co. conclude that Green will not resemble Green, a second reliever, in addition to Robertson, would be wise. By doing so, Management will preserve a significant portion of prospect capital and allow Toronto to address the need for a bat to vanquish left-handed roster pitchers.