Apr 27, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) reacts after being tagged out at home against the Atlanta Braves in the sixth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Guardians Slammed With Brutal Projection for 2025 MLB Season

Originally posted on Cleveland Guardians on SI
By Matthew Schmidt | Last updated Feb 4, 2025 10:42 AM ET

The Cleveland Guardians captured the AL Central division title and made it all the way to the ALCS this past season, and many felt they overachieved in doing so.

After all, the Guardians have one of the worst starting rotations in baseball, and their offense was maddeningly inconsistent, to say the least.

So, where does Cleveland stand heading into 2025?

Well, PECOTA recently dropped its playoff chances for every team heading into next season, and let's just say that the projections don't like the Guardians very much, putting them at 29 percent.

2025 Playoff Chances (PECOTA):

100% LAD
90% ATL
87% CHC
78% NYY BAL NYM
75% TEX
69% PHI
63% MIN HOU
62% ARI
58% SEA
49% TOR
38% SD
32% TB
31% KC
29% CLE
26% MIL
22% DET
19% STL
15% SF
12% BOS
8% LAA
6% PIT WSH
5% CIN
2% ATH
0% CWS MIA COL
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 3, 2025

This would place Cleveland in third place in the division behind the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals, which would certainly be a tough pill to swallow.

Of course, this is just a statistical model. No one expected the Guardians to make the postseason last year, and they did, so it's not like this is a be-all-end-all for Stephen Vogt's club.

Still, it's hard to ignore the concerns facing Cleveland going into 2025.

The Guardians' starting pitching remains an issue, and a legitimate argument can be made that their offense actually got worse after trading Josh Naylor and replacing him with Carlos Santana. At the very least, their lineup didn't get any better.

Cleveland does have some young talent such as Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel to fall back on, but it's always difficult to bank on unproven players.

The Guardians do carry the benefit of playing in a weak AL Central, so that will help them in their playoff quest, but it would not be entirely shocking if Cleveland does take a step back in the coming campaign.

This article first appeared on Cleveland Guardians on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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