Guardians vs. Tigers: Wild Card Series Preview

Probable Starting Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Gavin Williams vs. Tarik Skubal

• Williams: 31 GS, 167.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 173 K, 1.4 fWAR
• Skubal: 31 GS, 195.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 241 K, 6.6 fWAR

Like Skubal, Williams sat on Sunday, lining up this Game 1 matchup. There’s no doubt Detroit has the advantage, but the question is just how big that advantage is.

Skubal led qualified AL starters in ERA this season. Williams finished seventh. Yet, since the All-Star break, both pitchers have an identical 2.18 ERA in 12 starts.

Skubal still has the better underlying numbers – most importantly, a much lower walk rate – but Williams is not to be overlooked. His 48.9% groundball rate after the All-Star break ranked fifth in the AL, helping him limit the damage of a walk rate that also ranked fifth highest.

Williams may not fit anyone’s definition of a true ace, but he’s been lights out for the Guardians lately. Cleveland will need him to bring his best against Skubal, who pretty much always brings his best.

Advantage: Tigers

Game 2: Tanner Bibee vs. Jack Flaherty

• Bibee: 31 GS, 182.1 IP, 4.24 ERA, 162 K, 1.9 fWAR
• Flaherty: 31 GS, 161.0 IP, 4.64 ERA, 188 K, 2.5 fWAR

Bibee hasn’t been as effective as Williams this season, but considering his track record, I’d argue he has just as much of a claim to the title of Cleveland’s ace. He was also every bit as good as Williams, if not better, in September, so the Guardians will hope he’s officially put his midseason struggles behind him.

Funnily enough, each of Bibee’s last two starts came against the Tigers. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Well, his 2-0 record, 1.50 ERA, and 13 strikeouts in those outings suggest the former. On the flip side, he could run into trouble if Detroit proves too familiar with his arsenal.

Flaherty will be working on an extra day of rest compared to Mize, so I think Flaherty’s more likely to get the Game 2 start, with Mize getting ready for a potential Game 3. Mize has had the better season overall, but their numbers have been pretty similar lately, and Flaherty brings postseason experience to the table, so I’m confident he’s the right choice for this start.

Similar to Bibee, Flaherty faced the Guardians in each of his final two regular season starts. While he took the loss in both, his performance wasn’t really what the Tigers those games. In 9.1 IP, he held the Guardians to four runs on eight hits, striking out 10.

Advantage: It’s a wash

Game 3 (If Needed): Joey Cantillo vs. Casey Mize

• Cantillo: 13 GS (34 G), 95.1 IP, 3.21 ERA, 108 K, 1.5 fWAR
• Mize: 28 GS, 149.0 IP, 3.87 ERA, 139 K, 2.4 fWAR

I could see the Guardians going one of two ways here, but right now, I’m leaning toward thinking Cantillo gets the start. Parker Messick flashed sharper stuff in his brief rookie cameo, but he struggled against the Tigers his last time out, giving up three home runs in five innings.

Cantillo, meanwhile, showed some growing pains when he first moved from the bullpen to the rotation this summer, but he’s been absolutely nails over the past couple of months.

It isn’t ideal for the Guardians that Cantillo and Messick are both southpaws, since the Tigers’ offense is far more dangerous against left-handed pitching. Yet, Cleveland’s only other right-handed option is Slade Cecconi, who simply has not been as effective as Cantillo or Messick this season.

Mize has the edge when it comes to experience; Cantillo and Messick have made the same number of MLB starts in their combined careers as Mize made this season alone. That said, both Cantillo and Messick looked nastier than Mize in August and September.

Advantage: It’s a wash

Key Storylines To Watch: Cleveland Guardians

Will the Pitching Staff Keep Rolling?

As I wrote last week, the Guardians made it to this point on the backs (or should I say, the arms) of their pitchers. This team went 24-8 over the final month-plus of the season, despite an offense that averaged a 94 wRC+ and 4.4 runs per game.

So, if Cleveland is going to succeed in the playoffs, either the offense needs to step up (more on that in a moment) or the pitchers need to keep it up.

Guardians pitchers produced an MLB-best 2.63 ERA over their last 32 games. Their 3.08 xERA and 3.00 FIP were still the best in the majors, but not by nearly as wide a margin. And if the pitching regresses even a little, it could spell trouble.

Can José Ramírez Get Some Help?

Like I mentioned, the Guardians’ offense is bad. How bad? According to FanGraphs, only two Guardians hitters were worth one or more offensive runs above average in 2025: José Ramírez (33.8) and Kyle Manzardo (7.4).

Unless the pitchers continue to outperform their already excellent peripherals, Cleveland will eventually need to score some runs. That means they need contributions from more than just a couple of members of the lineup.

Key Storylines To Watch: Detroit Tigers

Will a Hitter (Besides Jahmai Jones) Step Up?

After brief MLB stints with the Angels, Orioles, Brewers, and Yankees from 2020-24, Jahmai Jones finally broke out with the Tigers this summer. He posted a 122 wRC+ in 54 contests from June to August, and then he went off in September, slashing .424/.537/.788 in 18 games.

That’s all terrific, and Jones deserves plenty of credit for keeping the Tigers afloat. Still, it’s a pretty bad sign when a platoon DH is your team’s only consistent source of offense. The Tigers desperately need their big bats to wake up if they’re going to make any noise in the playoffs.

Can Kyle Finnegan Become the Bullpen’s Stopper Again?

Charlie Morton aside, the Tigers’ rotation was fantastic in September – and Morton’s not going to be a factor in October. (He isn’t even on the team anymore.)

The bullpen, however, wasn’t nearly as successful. Tigers relievers went 2-8 with a 4.58 ERA and 4.40 xERA in the final month of the regular season. They were 4-for-8 in save opportunities with a -0.90 Win Probability Added.

A big part of the problem was that Kyle Finnegan, who was so dominant in August, hit the IL in early September and struggled upon his return. If he can become a ninth-inning stopper again, it will make a massive difference for a Tigers team that struggled to hold on to leads down the stretch.

Prediction

Tigers in three

My gut wants me to pick the Guardians. In addition to the hot hand, they’ll have home field advantage in all three games.

Yet, after laying out the pitching matchups, I couldn’t justify picking Cleveland over Detroit. Overall, these seem like a pair of pretty evenly matched teams. But not when Tarik Skubal takes the mound. The Skubal advantage will be huge for the Tigers in a best-of-three series – possibly too huge for the Guardians to overcome.